| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Trades 9 Average Win 0% Average Loss -2.22% Compounding Annual Return -21.609% Drawdown 51.800% Expectancy -1 Net Profit -48.126% Sharpe Ratio -0.548 Loss Rate 100% Win Rate 0% Profit-Loss Ratio 0 Alpha 0.048 Beta -2.307 Annual Standard Deviation 0.287 Annual Variance 0.082 Information Ratio -0.601 Tracking Error 0.41 Treynor Ratio 0.068 Total Fees $93.51 |
using MathNet.Numerics.LinearAlgebra;
using MathNet.Numerics.Statistics;
namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp
{
/// <summary>
/// This algorithm uses Math.NET Numerics library, specifically Linear Algebra object (Vector and Matrix) and operations, in order to solve a portfolio optimization problem.
/// </summary>
public class PortfolioOptimizationNumericsAlgorithm : QCAlgorithm
{
private const double _targetReturn = 0.1;
private const double _riskFreeRate = 0.01;
private double _lagrangeMultiplier;
private double _portfolioRisk;
private Matrix<double> Sigma;
private List<SymbolData> SymbolDataList;
public Vector<double> DiscountMeanVector
{
get
{
if (SymbolDataList == null)
{
return null;
}
return
Vector<double>.Build.DenseOfArray(SymbolDataList.Select(x => (double)x.Return).ToArray()) -
Vector<double>.Build.Dense(SymbolDataList.Count, _riskFreeRate);
}
}
/// <summary>
/// Initialise the data and resolution required, as well as the cash and start-end dates for your algorithm. All algorithms must initialized.
/// </summary>
public override void Initialize()
{
SetStartDate(2013, 10, 07); //Set Start Date
SetEndDate(DateTime.Now.AddDays(-1)); //Set End Date
SetCash(1000000); //Set Strategy Cash
// Find more symbols here: http://quantconnect.com/data
AddEquity("SPY", Resolution.Daily);
AddEquity("AIG", Resolution.Daily);
AddEquity("BAC", Resolution.Daily);
AddEquity("IBM", Resolution.Daily);
var allHistoryBars = new List<double[]>();
SymbolDataList = new List<SymbolData>();
foreach (var security in Securities)
{
var history = History(security.Key, TimeSpan.FromDays(365));
allHistoryBars.Add(history.Select(x => (double)x.Value).ToArray());
SymbolDataList.Add(new SymbolData(security.Key, history));
}
// Diagonal Matrix with each security risk (standard deviation)
var S = Matrix<double>.Build.DenseOfDiagonalArray(SymbolDataList.Select(x => (double)x.Risk).ToArray());
// Computes Correlation Matrix (using Math.NET Numerics Statistics)
var R = Correlation.PearsonMatrix(allHistoryBars);
// Computes Covariance Matrix (using Math.NET Numerics Linear Algebra)
Sigma = S * R * S;
ComputeLagrangeMultiplier();
ComputeWeights();
ComputePortfolioRisk();
Log(string.Format("Lagrange Multiplier: {0,7:F4}", _lagrangeMultiplier));
Log(string.Format("Portfolio Risk: {0,7:P2} ", _portfolioRisk));
}
/// <summary>
/// OnData event is the primary entry point for your algorithm. Each new data point will be pumped in here.
/// </summary>
/// <param name="data">Slice object keyed by symbol containing the stock data</param>
public override void OnData(Slice data)
{
if (!Portfolio.Invested)
{
foreach (var symbolData in SymbolDataList.OrderBy(x => x.Weight))
{
Log("Purchased Stock: " + symbolData);
SetHoldings(symbolData.Symbol, symbolData.Weight);
}
}
}
/// <summary>
/// Computes Lagrange Multiplier
/// </summary>
private void ComputeLagrangeMultiplier()
{
var denominatorMatrix = DiscountMeanVector * Sigma.Inverse() * DiscountMeanVector.ToColumnMatrix();
_lagrangeMultiplier = (_targetReturn - _riskFreeRate) / denominatorMatrix.ToArray().First();
}
/// <summary>
/// Computes weight for each risky asset
/// </summary>
private void ComputeWeights()
{
var weights = _lagrangeMultiplier * Sigma.Inverse() * DiscountMeanVector.ToColumnMatrix();
for (var i = 0; i < weights.RowCount; i++)
{
SymbolDataList[i].SetWeight(weights.ToArray()[i, 0]);
}
}
/// <summary>
/// Computes Portfolio Risk
/// </summary>
private void ComputePortfolioRisk()
{
var weights = Vector<double>.Build.DenseOfArray(SymbolDataList.Select(x => (double)x.Return).ToArray());
var portfolioVarianceMatrix = weights * Sigma * weights.ToColumnMatrix();
_portfolioRisk = Math.Sqrt(portfolioVarianceMatrix.ToArray().First());
}
/// <summary>
/// Symbol Data class to store security data (Return, Risk, Weight)
/// </summary>
class SymbolData
{
private RateOfChange ROC = new RateOfChange(2);
private SimpleMovingAverage SMA;
private StandardDeviation STD;
public Symbol Symbol { get; private set; }
public decimal Return { get { return SMA.Current; } }
public decimal Risk { get { return STD.Current; } }
public decimal Weight { get; private set; }
public SymbolData(Symbol symbol, IEnumerable<BaseData> history)
{
Symbol = symbol;
SMA = new SimpleMovingAverage(365).Of(ROC);
STD = new StandardDeviation(365).Of(ROC);
foreach (var data in history)
{
Update(data);
}
}
public void Update(BaseData data)
{
ROC.Update(data.Time, data.Value);
}
public void SetWeight(double value)
{
Weight = (decimal)value;
}
public override string ToString()
{
return string.Format("{0}: {1,10:P2}\t{2,10:P2}\t{3,10:P2}", Symbol.Value, Weight, Return, Risk);
}
}
}
}