| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Orders 158 Average Win 6.54% Average Loss -2.79% Compounding Annual Return 15.183% Drawdown 37.900% Expectancy 0.802 Start Equity 1000000000 End Equity 4416620784.79 Net Profit 341.662% Sharpe Ratio 0.559 Sortino Ratio 0.524 Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio 3.012% Loss Rate 46% Win Rate 54% Profit-Loss Ratio 2.35 Alpha 0.044 Beta 0.519 Annual Standard Deviation 0.158 Annual Variance 0.025 Information Ratio 0.02 Tracking Error 0.156 Treynor Ratio 0.17 Total Fees $9110694.11 Estimated Strategy Capacity $2500000000.00 Lowest Capacity Asset AAPL R735QTJ8XC9X Portfolio Turnover 2.01% Drawdown Recovery 910 |
# region imports
from AlgorithmImports import *
# endregion
class CustomHistoricalReturnsAlphaModel(AlphaModel):
'''Uses Historical returns to create insights.'''
def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs):
'''Initializes a new default instance of the HistoricalReturnsAlphaModel class.
Args:
lookback(int): Historical return lookback period
resolution: The resolution of historical data'''
self.lookback = kwargs['lookback'] if 'lookback' in kwargs else 1
self.resolution = kwargs['resolution'] if 'resolution' in kwargs else Resolution.DAILY
self.prediction_interval = Time.multiply(Extensions.to_time_span(self.resolution), self.lookback)
self._symbol_data_by_symbol = {}
self.insight_collection = InsightCollection()
def update(self, algorithm, data):
'''Updates this alpha model with the latest data from the algorithm.
This is called each time the algorithm receives data for subscribed securities
Args:
algorithm: The algorithm instance
data: The new data available
Returns:
The new insights generated'''
insights = []
for symbol, symbol_data in self._symbol_data_by_symbol.items():
if symbol_data.can_emit:
direction = InsightDirection.FLAT
magnitude = symbol_data.return_
if magnitude > 0: direction = InsightDirection.UP
if magnitude < 0: direction = InsightDirection.DOWN
if direction == InsightDirection.FLAT:
self.cancel_insights(algorithm, symbol)
continue
insights.append(Insight.price(symbol, self.prediction_interval, direction, magnitude, weight=100*magnitude))
self.insight_collection.add_range(insights)
return insights
def on_securities_changed(self, algorithm, changes):
'''Event fired each time the we add/remove securities from the data feed
Args:
algorithm: The algorithm instance that experienced the change in securities
changes: The security additions and removals from the algorithm'''
# clean up data for removed securities
for removed in changes.removed_securities:
symbol_data = self._symbol_data_by_symbol.pop(removed.symbol, None)
if symbol_data is not None:
symbol_data.remove_consolidators(algorithm)
self.cancel_insights(algorithm, removed.symbol)
# initialize data for added securities
symbols = [ x.symbol for x in changes.added_securities ]
history = algorithm.history(symbols, self.lookback, self.resolution)
if history.empty: return
tickers = history.index.levels[0]
for ticker in tickers:
symbol = SymbolCache.get_symbol(ticker)
if symbol not in self._symbol_data_by_symbol:
symbol_data = SymbolData(symbol, self.lookback)
self._symbol_data_by_symbol[symbol] = symbol_data
symbol_data.register_indicators(algorithm, self.resolution)
symbol_data.warm_up_indicators(history.loc[ticker])
def cancel_insights(self, algorithm, symbol):
if not self.insight_collection.contains_key(symbol):
return
insights = self.insight_collection[symbol]
algorithm.insights.cancel(insights)
self.insight_collection.clear([ symbol ]);
class SymbolData:
'''Contains data specific to a symbol required by this model'''
def __init__(self, symbol, lookback):
self.symbol = symbol
self.roc = RateOfChange('{}.roc({})'.format(symbol, lookback), lookback)
self.consolidator = None
self.previous = 0
def register_indicators(self, algorithm, resolution):
self.consolidator = algorithm.resolve_consolidator(self.symbol, resolution)
algorithm.register_indicator(self.symbol, self.roc, self.consolidator)
def remove_consolidators(self, algorithm):
if self.consolidator is not None:
algorithm.subscription_manager.remove_consolidator(self.symbol, self.consolidator)
def warm_up_indicators(self, history):
for tuple in history.itertuples():
self.roc.update(tuple.Index, tuple.close)
@property
def return_(self):
return float(self.roc.current.value)
@property
def can_emit(self):
if self.previous == self.roc.samples:
return False
self.previous = self.roc.samples
return self.roc.is_ready
def __str__(self, **kwargs):
return '{}: {:.2%}'.format(self.roc.name, (1 + self.return_)**252 - 1)
# region imports
from AlgorithmImports import *
from universe import PiotroskiScoreUniverseSelectionModel
from alpha import CustomHistoricalReturnsAlphaModel
# endregion
class PiotroskiScoreAlgorithm(QCAlgorithm):
def initialize(self):
# Algorithm cash and period setup
self.set_cash(1_000_000_000)
self.set_start_date(2016, 1, 1)
# Configure settings to rebalance monthly.
rebalance_date = self.date_rules.month_start("SPY")
# Universe settings
self.universe_settings.schedule.on(rebalance_date)
self.universe_settings.resolution = Resolution.DAILY
self.settings.rebalance_portfolio_on_insight_changes = False
self.add_universe_selection(PiotroskiScoreUniverseSelectionModel(
self,
self.get_parameter('score_threshold', 7),
self.get_parameter('max_universe_size', 3)
))
# Long only strategy on selected assets.
self.add_alpha(CustomHistoricalReturnsAlphaModel(lookback=21))
# Weight assets proportional to past returns.
self.set_portfolio_construction(InsightWeightingPortfolioConstructionModel(rebalance_date, PortfolioBias.LONG))
self.set_execution(ImmediateExecutionModel())
self.set_warm_up(timedelta(3*365))
# region imports
from operator import attrgetter
from AlgorithmImports import *
# endregion
class PiotroskiFactors:
field_map = {
"roa": "operation_ratios.roa.one_year",
"operating_cash_flow": "financial_statements.cash_flow_statement.cash_flow_from_continuing_operating_activities.twelve_months",
"current_ratio": "operation_ratios.current_ratio.one_year",
"ordinary_shares_number": "financial_statements.balance_sheet.ordinary_shares_number.twelve_months",
"gross_margin": "operation_ratios.gross_margin.one_year",
"assets_turnover": "operation_ratios.assets_turnover.one_year",
"total_assets": "financial_statements.balance_sheet.total_assets.twelve_months",
"long_term_debt": "financial_statements.balance_sheet.long_term_debt.twelve_months",
}
def __init__(self, f):
for name, path in self.field_map.items():
setattr(self, name, attrgetter(path)(f))
@staticmethod
def are_available(f):
return all(
not np.isnan(attrgetter(path)(f))
for path in PiotroskiFactors.field_map.values()
)
# region imports
from AlgorithmImports import *
# endregion
class PiotroskiScore:
# Source: https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/prg/asam/2019/F-Score.pdf
def get_score(self, factors):
return (
self.roa_score(factors) # ROA
+ self.operating_cash_flow_score(factors) # CFO
+ self.roa_change_score(factors) # ΔROA
+ self.accruals_score(factors) # ACCRUAL
+ self.leverage_score(factors) # ΔLEVER
+ self.liquidity_score(factors) # ΔLIQUID
+ self.share_issued_score(factors) # EQ_OFFER
+ self.gross_margin_score(factors) # ΔMARGIN
+ self.asset_turnover_score(factors) # ΔTURN
)
def roa_score(self, factors):
'''Get the Profitability - Return of Asset sub-score of Piotroski F-Score
"I define ROA ... as net income before extraordinary items ..., scaled by
beginning of the year total assets." (p. 7)
"Net income before extraordinary items for the fiscal year preceding
portfolio formation scaled by total assets at the beginning of year t."
(p. 13)
'''
return int(factors[0].roa > 0)
def operating_cash_flow_score(self, factors):
'''Get the Profitability - Operating Cash Flow sub-score of Piotroski F-Score
"I define ... CRO as ... cash flow from operations ..., scaled by
beginning of the year total assets." (p. 7)
"Cash flow from operations scaled by total assets at the beginning
of year t". (p. 13)
'''
return int(factors[0].operating_cash_flow > 0)
def roa_change_score(self, factors):
'''Get the Profitability - Change in Return of Assets sub-score of Piotroski F-Score
"I define ΔROA as the current year's ROA less the prior year's ROA. If ΔROA > 0,
the indicator variable F_ΔROA equals one, zero otherwise." (p. 7)
"Change in annual ROA for the year preceding portfolio formation. ΔROA is
calculated as ROA for year t less the firm's ROA for year t-1." (p. 13)
'''
return int(factors[0].roa > factors[1].roa)
def accruals_score(self, factors):
'''Get the Profitability - Accruals sub-score of Piotroski F-Score
"I define the variable ACCRUAL as current year's net income before
extraordinary items less cash flow from operations, scaled by
beginning of the year total assets. The indicator variable
F_ACCRUAL equals one if CFO > ROA, zero otherwise." (p. 7)
"Net income before extraordinary items less cash flow from
operations, scaled by total assets at the beginning of year t." (p. 13)
'''
# Nearest Operating Cash Flow and ROA as current year data.
operating_cashflow = factors[0].operating_cash_flow
roa = factors[0].roa
total_assets = factors[1].total_assets # Beginning of year t.
return int(operating_cashflow / total_assets > roa)
def leverage_score(self, factors):
'''Get the Leverage, Liquidity and Source of Funds - Change in Leverage sub-score of Piotroski F-Score
"I measure ΔLEVER as the historical change in the ratio of total
long-term debt to average total assets, and view an increase (decrease)
in financial leverage as a negative (positive) signal.... I define the
indicator variable F_ΔLEVER to equal one (zero) if the firm's leverage
ratio fell (rose) in the year preceding portfolio formation." (p. 8)
"Change in the firm's debt-to-assets ratio between the end of year t
and year t-1. The debt-to-asset ratio is defined as the firm's total
long-term debt (including the portion of long-term debt classified
as current) scaled by average total assets." (p. 13)
'''
lt_t = factors[0].long_term_debt
lt_t1 = factors[1].long_term_debt
a_t = factors[0].total_assets
a_t1 = factors[1].total_assets
a_t2 = factors[2].total_assets
avg_assets_t = (a_t + a_t1) / 2.0
avg_assets_t1 = (a_t1 + a_t2) / 2.0
leverage_t = lt_t / avg_assets_t
leverage_t1 = lt_t1 / avg_assets_t1
# Score 1 if leverage decreased
return int(leverage_t < leverage_t1)
def liquidity_score(self, factors):
'''Get the Liquidity score
"The variable ΔLIQUID measures the historical change in the firm's
current ratio between the current and prior year, where I define the
current ratio as the ratio of current assets to current liabilities
at fiscal year-end. I assume that an improvement in liquidity (i.e.,
ΔLIQUID > 0) is a good signal about the firm's ability to service
current debt obligations. The indicator variable F_ΔLIQUID equals
one if the firm's liquidity improved, zero otherwise." (p. 8)
"Change in the firm's current ratio between the end of year t and
year t-1. Current ratio is defined as total current assets divided
by total current liabilities." (p. 13)
'''
return int(factors[0].current_ratio > factors[1].current_ratio)
def share_issued_score(self, factors):
'''Get the share issued score
"I define the indicator variable EQ_OFFER to equal one if the firm
did not issue common equity in the year preceding portfolio formation,
zero otherwise." (p. 8)
'''
return int(factors[0].ordinary_shares_number <= factors[1].ordinary_shares_number)
def gross_margin_score(self, factors):
'''Get the gross margin score
"I define ΔMARGIN as the firm's current gross margin ratio (gross
margin scaled by total sales) less the prior year's gross margin
ratio.... The indicator variable F_ΔMARGIN equals one if ΔMARGIN
is positive, zero otherwise." (p. 8)
"Gross margin (net sales less cost of good sold) for the year
preceding portfolio formation, scaled by net sales for the year,
less the firm's gross margin (scaled by net sales) from year t-1."
(p. 13)
'''
return int(factors[0].gross_margin > factors[1].gross_margin)
def asset_turnover_score(self, factors):
'''Get the asset turnover score
"I define ΔTURN as the firm's current year asset turnover ratio
(total sales scaled by beginning of the year total assets) less
the prior year's asset turnover ratio.... The indicator variable
F_ΔTURN equals one if ΔTURN is positive, zero otherwise." (p. 8)
"Change in the firm's asset turnover ratio between the end of
year t and year t-1. The asset turnover ratio is defined as net
sales scaled by average total assets for the year" (p. 13)
'''
return int(factors[0].assets_turnover > factors[1].assets_turnover)# region imports
from AlgorithmImports import *
from piotroski_score import PiotroskiScore
from piotroski_factors import PiotroskiFactors
# endregion
class SymbolData:
_piotroski_score = PiotroskiScore()
def __init__(self, fundamental):
self.is_ready = False
self.score = None
self._period_ending_date = datetime.min
self._factors = RollingWindow(3)
self.update(fundamental)
def update(self, fundamental):
period_ending_date = fundamental.financial_statements.period_ending_date.twelve_months
# If a new 10K hasn't been released yet...
if self._period_ending_date == period_ending_date:
# If it's been 5 months since the previous fiscal year, rebalance this asset.
if (self._factors.is_ready and
(fundamental.end_time - self._period_ending_date).days > 5*30):
self.score = self._piotroski_score.get_score(self._factors)
self.is_ready = True
# When a new 10K is released, add the fundamental data to the RollingWindow.
elif PiotroskiFactors.are_available(fundamental):
# If we've missed a 10K, reset the RollingWindow.
if period_ending_date.year - self._period_ending_date.year > 1:
self._factors.reset()
self.is_ready = False
self._factors.add(PiotroskiFactors(fundamental))
self._period_ending_date = period_ending_date
return self.is_ready# region imports
from AlgorithmImports import *
from symbol_data import SymbolData
from piotroski_factors import PiotroskiFactors
# endregion
class PiotroskiScoreUniverseSelectionModel(FundamentalUniverseSelectionModel):
def __init__(self, algorithm, threshold, max_universe_size=100):
super().__init__(self._select_assets)
self._algorithm = algorithm
self._threshold = threshold
self._max_universe_size = max_universe_size
self._symbol_data_by_symbol = {}
self._tickers = ['META', 'AMZN', 'AAPL', 'GOOG', 'NFLX']
def _select_assets(self, fundamentals):
fundamentals = [f for f in fundamentals if f.symbol.value in self._tickers]
# Update the Piotroski factors of all assets.
for f in fundamentals:
self._symbol_data_by_symbol.setdefault(f.symbol, SymbolData(f)).update(f)
# Wait until we have sufficient history.
if self._algorithm.is_warming_up:
return Universe.UNCHANGED
# We only want stocks with fundamental data and price > $1.
f_scores = {}
for f in fundamentals:
score = (self._symbol_data_by_symbol[f.symbol].score or 0)
if score >= self._threshold and (f.market_cap or 0) > 1_000_000_000:
f_scores[f.symbol] = score
# Select stocks with the highest F-Score, and take the top x:
top_symbols = [
symbol for symbol, score in sorted(
f_scores.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True
) if score >= self._threshold
][:self._max_universe_size]
self._algorithm.plot('F-Scores', 'Total', len(f_scores))
self._algorithm.plot('F-Scores', 'Above Thresold', len(top_symbols))
return top_symbols