| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Orders 57058 Average Win 0.09% Average Loss -0.10% Compounding Annual Return 69.721% Drawdown 22.800% Expectancy 0.034 Start Equity 1000000.00 End Equity 2557755.59 Net Profit 155.776% Sharpe Ratio 1.909 Sortino Ratio 2.244 Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio 88.987% Loss Rate 46% Win Rate 54% Profit-Loss Ratio 0.91 Alpha 0.422 Beta -0.072 Annual Standard Deviation 0.221 Annual Variance 0.049 Information Ratio 1.634 Tracking Error 0.254 Treynor Ratio -5.832 Total Fees $0.00 Estimated Strategy Capacity $290000.00 Lowest Capacity Asset BTCUSDT 18N Portfolio Turnover 8616.88% |
#region imports
using System;
using System.Collections;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using System.Diagnostics;
using System.Drawing;
using System.Globalization;
using System.Linq;
using System.Text;
using Newtonsoft.Json;
using QuantConnect;
using QuantConnect.Algorithm;
using QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework;
using QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework.Alphas;
using QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework.Execution;
using QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework.Portfolio;
using QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework.Portfolio.SignalExports;
using QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework.Risk;
using QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework.Selection;
using QuantConnect.Algorithm.Selection;
using QuantConnect.Api;
using QuantConnect.Benchmarks;
using QuantConnect.Brokerages;
using QuantConnect.Commands;
using QuantConnect.Configuration;
using QuantConnect.Data;
using QuantConnect.Data.Auxiliary;
using QuantConnect.Data.Consolidators;
using QuantConnect.Data.Custom;
using QuantConnect.Data.Custom.IconicTypes;
using QuantConnect.Data.Fundamental;
using QuantConnect.Data.Market;
using QuantConnect.Data.Shortable;
using QuantConnect.Data.UniverseSelection;
using QuantConnect.DataSource;
using QuantConnect.Indicators;
using QuantConnect.Interfaces;
using QuantConnect.Notifications;
using QuantConnect.Orders;
using QuantConnect.Orders.Fees;
using QuantConnect.Orders.Fills;
using QuantConnect.Orders.OptionExercise;
using QuantConnect.Orders.Slippage;
using QuantConnect.Orders.TimeInForces;
using QuantConnect.Parameters;
using QuantConnect.Python;
using QuantConnect.Scheduling;
using QuantConnect.Securities;
using QuantConnect.Securities.Crypto;
using QuantConnect.Securities.CryptoFuture;
using QuantConnect.Securities.Equity;
using QuantConnect.Securities.Forex;
using QuantConnect.Securities.Future;
using QuantConnect.Securities.IndexOption;
using QuantConnect.Securities.Interfaces;
using QuantConnect.Securities.Option;
using QuantConnect.Securities.Positions;
using QuantConnect.Securities.Volatility;
using QuantConnect.Statistics;
using QuantConnect.Storage;
using QuantConnect.Util;
using Calendar = QuantConnect.Data.Consolidators.Calendar;
using QCAlgorithmFramework = QuantConnect.Algorithm.QCAlgorithm;
using QCAlgorithmFrameworkBridge = QuantConnect.Algorithm.QCAlgorithm;
#endregion
namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp
{
public class CryptoExampleStrategyPublic : QCAlgorithm
{
public static string ModelParamsFileName = "baseline_model_params.json";
public static string ThresholdArrayFileName = "baseline_threshold_array.json";
public class ModelParams
{
[JsonProperty("feature_cols")]
public string[] FeatureCols { get; set; }
[JsonProperty("coefficients")]
public decimal[] Coefficients { get; set; }
[JsonProperty("intercept")]
public decimal Intercept { get; set; }
[JsonProperty("center")]
public decimal[] Center { get; set; }
[JsonProperty("scale")]
public decimal[] Scale { get; set; }
}
// Ring buffer for prediction history
private class RingBuffer<T>
{
private T[] _buffer;
private DateTime[] _timestamps;
private int _size;
private int _currentIndex;
private int _count;
public RingBuffer(int size)
{
_size = size;
_buffer = new T[size];
_timestamps = new DateTime[size];
_currentIndex = 0;
_count = 0;
}
public void Add(DateTime timestamp, T item)
{
_timestamps[_currentIndex] = timestamp;
_buffer[_currentIndex] = item;
_currentIndex = (_currentIndex + 1) % _size;
if (_count < _size)
_count++;
}
public int Count => _count;
public T GetByIndex(int index)
{
if (index < 0 || index >= _count)
throw new IndexOutOfRangeException();
int actualIndex = (_currentIndex - _count + index + _size) % _size;
return _buffer[actualIndex];
}
public DateTime GetTimestampByIndex(int index)
{
if (index < 0 || index >= _count)
throw new IndexOutOfRangeException();
int actualIndex = (_currentIndex - _count + index + _size) % _size;
return _timestamps[actualIndex];
}
public T GetLatest()
{
if (_count == 0)
throw new InvalidOperationException("Buffer is empty");
int index = (_currentIndex - 1 + _size) % _size;
return _buffer[index];
}
public DateTime GetLatestTimestamp()
{
if (_count == 0)
throw new InvalidOperationException("Buffer is empty");
int index = (_currentIndex - 1 + _size) % _size;
return _timestamps[index];
}
public List<T> GetItems()
{
List<T> result = new List<T>(_count);
for (int i = 0; i < _count; i++)
{
int index = (_currentIndex - _count + i + _size) % _size;
result.Add(_buffer[index]);
}
return result;
}
public List<KeyValuePair<DateTime, T>> GetAllWithTimestamps()
{
List<KeyValuePair<DateTime, T>> result = new List<KeyValuePair<DateTime, T>>(
_count
);
for (int i = 0; i < _count; i++)
{
int index = (_currentIndex - _count + i + _size) % _size;
result.Add(new KeyValuePair<DateTime, T>(_timestamps[index], _buffer[index]));
}
return result;
}
}
private enum ModelState
{
Normal,
Suspicious,
Reversed,
HighlyUnreliable,
}
private Symbol _btcusdt;
private ModelParams _modelParams;
private decimal[] _thresholdArr;
private bool _modelLoaded = false;
private decimal _positionSize = 0.98m;
private decimal _leverage = 1.0m;
private decimal _enterPositionThreshold = 0.04m;
private decimal _exitPositionThreshold = 0.60m;
private decimal _takeProfitTarget = 0.01m;
private decimal _stopLossLevel = 1m;
private decimal _modelReverseThreshold = 1m;
private ModelState _currentModelState = ModelState.Normal;
private int _consecutiveLosses = 0;
private int _consecutiveWins = 0;
private int _consecutiveLossesThreshold = 2;
private int _consecutiveWinsThreshold = 2;
private DateTime _stateTransitionTime;
private decimal _stateTransitionPrice;
private DateTime _positionEntryTime;
private bool _inLongPosition = false;
private bool _inShortPosition = false;
private decimal _entryPrice = 0m;
private int _positionHoldingWindow = 10;
private int _earlyProfitMinHoldingTime = 1;
private RingBuffer<decimal> _predictionHistory;
private int _maxPredictionHistory = 60;
private HashSet<DateTime> _testDays = new HashSet<DateTime>();
private List<TradeRecord> _tradeRecords = new List<TradeRecord>();
private class TradeRecord
{
public DateTime EntryTime { get; set; }
public DateTime ExitTime { get; set; }
public decimal EntryPrice { get; set; }
public decimal ExitPrice { get; set; }
public string Direction { get; set; }
public decimal PnL { get; set; }
public string ExitReason { get; set; }
public ModelState ModelStateAtEntry { get; set; }
public decimal OriginalPrediction { get; set; }
public decimal AdjustedPrediction { get; set; }
}
public override void Initialize()
{
if (!LiveMode)
{
SetStartDate(2023, 7, 1);
// SetEndDate(2023, 10, 1);
SetEndDate(DateTime.Now);
}
// SetAccountCurrency("USDT", 1_000_000);
SetAccountCurrency("USD", 1_000_000);
// SetCash("USDT", 0);
SetBrokerageModel(new DefaultBrokerageModel());
SetTimeZone(TimeZones.Utc);
// We use 2x leverage for quantconnect live paper trading for the high sharpe ratio
if (LiveMode)
{
_positionSize = 0.98m;
_leverage = 2.0m;
}
var security = AddCrypto(
"BTCUSDT",
Resolution.Minute,
LiveMode ? null: Market.Binance,
fillForward: true,
leverage: _leverage
);
// security.SetFeeModel(new ConstantFeeModel(0.0m));
_btcusdt = security.Symbol;
_predictionHistory = new RingBuffer<decimal>(_maxPredictionHistory);
// Reload model every 00:00 UTC
// Schedule.On(
// DateRules.EveryDay("BTCUSDT"),
// TimeRules.At(new TimeSpan(00, 00, 00)),
// LoadModelParameters
// );
// Initialize test days
// InitializeTestDays();
// Reset state machine at start of each day
// Schedule.On(
// DateRules.EveryDay("BTCUSDT"),
// TimeRules.At(00, 00, 01), // Just after midnight
// ResetStateMachine
// );
// Liquidate at the start of each day
// Schedule.On(
// DateRules.EveryDay("BTCUSDT"),
// TimeRules.At(00, 00, 05), // Just after midnight
// CheckAndLiquidateForNonTestDays
// );
ResetStateMachine();
LoadModelParameters();
LoadThresholdArray();
}
private void ResetStateMachine()
{
if (_currentModelState != ModelState.Normal)
{
Log(
$"Resetting state machine. Previous state: {_currentModelState}, Consecutive losses: {_consecutiveLosses}, Consecutive wins: {_consecutiveWins}"
);
}
_currentModelState = ModelState.Normal;
_consecutiveLosses = 0;
_consecutiveWins = 0;
Log(
$"State machine reset for {Time.Date:yyyy-MM-dd}. Now in {_currentModelState} state."
);
}
private void InitializeTestDays()
{
string[] testDaysStrings = new string[] {};
foreach (string dateStr in testDaysStrings)
{
DateTime date = DateTime.Parse(dateStr);
_testDays.Add(date.Date); // Store just the date part, no time
}
Log($"Initialized {_testDays.Count} test days for trading");
}
public override void OnData(Slice slice)
{
Log($"[OnData] - {Time} - Before Check {_btcusdt}, _modelLoaded {_modelLoaded}");
if (!slice.Bars.ContainsKey(_btcusdt) || !_modelLoaded)
return;
Log($"[OnData] - {Time} - After Check: {slice.Bars[_btcusdt]}");
var bar = slice.Bars[_btcusdt];
decimal[] features = CalculateFeatures(bar);
decimal originalPredictProb = PredictProbability(features);
decimal adjustedPredictProb = AdjustPredictionByState(originalPredictProb);
decimal percentile = GetProbabilityPercentile(adjustedPredictProb);
_predictionHistory.Add(Time, originalPredictProb);
Log(
$"Time: {Time}, Price: {bar.Close}, Original Prediction: {originalPredictProb:F4}, "
+ $"Adjusted Prediction: {adjustedPredictProb:F4}, Percentile: {percentile:P2}, State: {_currentModelState}"
);
bool shouldBeLong = percentile >= (1m - _enterPositionThreshold / 2m);
bool shouldBeShort = percentile <= (_enterPositionThreshold / 2m);
bool shouldExitLong = percentile <= (_exitPositionThreshold / 2m);
bool shouldExitShort = percentile >= (1m - _exitPositionThreshold / 2m);
bool holdingTimeElapsed = false;
bool earlyProfitTimeElapsed = false;
decimal currentPnlPercent = 0m;
if (_inLongPosition || _inShortPosition)
{
TimeSpan holdingTime = Time - _positionEntryTime;
holdingTimeElapsed = holdingTime.TotalMinutes >= _positionHoldingWindow;
earlyProfitTimeElapsed = holdingTime.TotalMinutes >= _earlyProfitMinHoldingTime;
if (_inLongPosition)
{
currentPnlPercent = (bar.Close - _entryPrice) / _entryPrice * 100m;
}
else if (_inShortPosition)
{
currentPnlPercent = (_entryPrice - bar.Close) / _entryPrice * 100m;
}
if (holdingTimeElapsed)
{
Log($"Position holding window of {_positionHoldingWindow} minutes elapsed");
}
}
bool takeProfitTriggered =
earlyProfitTimeElapsed && currentPnlPercent >= _takeProfitTarget;
bool stopLossTriggered = currentPnlPercent <= -_stopLossLevel;
if (_inLongPosition)
{
// Exit if:
// 1. opposite signal
// 2. holding time elapsed
// 3. exit threshold reached
// 4. take profit target hit
// 5. stop loss triggered
if (
shouldBeShort
|| holdingTimeElapsed
|| shouldExitLong
|| takeProfitTriggered
|| stopLossTriggered
)
{
string reason =
shouldBeShort ? "Opposite signal"
: holdingTimeElapsed ? "Holding time elapsed"
: takeProfitTriggered ? $"Take profit target hit: {currentPnlPercent:F2}%"
: stopLossTriggered ? $"Stop loss triggered: {currentPnlPercent:F2}%"
: "Exit threshold reached";
ClosePosition(
"LONG",
bar.Close,
reason,
originalPredictProb,
adjustedPredictProb
);
// Check if stop loss should trigger state machine transition
if (stopLossTriggered)
{
UpdateStateMachineOnLoss();
}
else if (takeProfitTriggered)
{
UpdateStateMachineOnWin();
}
}
}
else if (_inShortPosition)
{
// Exit if:
// 1. opposite signal
// 2. holding time elapsed
// 3. exit threshold reached
// 4. take profit target hit
// 5. stop loss triggered
if (
shouldBeLong
|| holdingTimeElapsed
|| shouldExitShort
|| takeProfitTriggered
|| stopLossTriggered
)
{
string reason =
shouldBeLong ? "Opposite signal"
: holdingTimeElapsed ? "Holding time elapsed"
: takeProfitTriggered ? $"Take profit target hit: {currentPnlPercent:F2}%"
: stopLossTriggered ? $"Stop loss triggered: {currentPnlPercent:F2}%"
: "Exit threshold reached";
ClosePosition(
"SHORT",
bar.Close,
reason,
originalPredictProb,
adjustedPredictProb
);
// Check if stop loss should trigger state machine transition
if (stopLossTriggered)
{
UpdateStateMachineOnLoss();
}
else if (takeProfitTriggered)
{
UpdateStateMachineOnWin();
}
}
}
// Enter new positions if we're not already in a position
if (!_inLongPosition && !_inShortPosition)
{
if (shouldBeLong)
{
EnterLong(bar.Close, originalPredictProb, adjustedPredictProb);
}
else if (shouldBeShort)
{
EnterShort(bar.Close, originalPredictProb, adjustedPredictProb);
}
}
}
private decimal AdjustPredictionByState(decimal originalPrediction)
{
switch (_currentModelState)
{
case ModelState.Normal:
// No adjustment needed
return originalPrediction;
case ModelState.Suspicious:
// Reduce confidence by moving prediction toward 0.5
return 0.5m + (originalPrediction - 0.5m) * 0.5m;
case ModelState.Reversed:
// Invert the prediction (1-p)
return 1m - originalPrediction;
case ModelState.HighlyUnreliable:
// Just return 0.5 (no clear signal)
return 0.5m;
default:
return originalPrediction;
}
}
private void UpdateStateMachineOnLoss()
{
_consecutiveLosses++;
_consecutiveWins = 0;
// Transition state machine based on consecutive losses
switch (_currentModelState)
{
case ModelState.Normal:
if (_consecutiveLosses >= _consecutiveLossesThreshold)
{
_currentModelState = ModelState.Suspicious;
_stateTransitionTime = Time;
Log(
$"State transition: Normal -> Suspicious after {_consecutiveLosses} consecutive losses"
);
}
break;
case ModelState.Suspicious:
if (_consecutiveLosses >= _consecutiveLossesThreshold * 2)
{
_currentModelState = ModelState.Reversed;
_stateTransitionTime = Time;
Log(
$"State transition: Suspicious -> Reversed after {_consecutiveLosses} consecutive losses"
);
}
break;
case ModelState.Reversed:
if (_consecutiveLosses >= _consecutiveLossesThreshold * 3)
{
_currentModelState = ModelState.HighlyUnreliable;
_stateTransitionTime = Time;
Log(
$"State transition: Reversed -> HighlyUnreliable after {_consecutiveLosses} consecutive losses"
);
}
break;
}
}
private void UpdateStateMachineOnWin()
{
_consecutiveWins++;
_consecutiveLosses = 0;
// Transition state machine based on consecutive wins
switch (_currentModelState)
{
case ModelState.HighlyUnreliable:
if (_consecutiveWins >= _consecutiveWinsThreshold)
{
_currentModelState = ModelState.Reversed;
_stateTransitionTime = Time;
Log(
$"State transition: HighlyUnreliable -> Reversed after {_consecutiveWins} consecutive wins"
);
}
break;
case ModelState.Reversed:
if (_consecutiveWins >= _consecutiveWinsThreshold * 2)
{
_currentModelState = ModelState.Suspicious;
_stateTransitionTime = Time;
Log(
$"State transition: Reversed -> Suspicious after {_consecutiveWins} consecutive wins"
);
}
break;
case ModelState.Suspicious:
if (_consecutiveWins >= _consecutiveWinsThreshold * 3)
{
_currentModelState = ModelState.Normal;
_stateTransitionTime = Time;
Log(
$"State transition: Suspicious -> Normal after {_consecutiveWins} consecutive wins"
);
}
break;
}
}
private void EnterLong(
decimal price,
decimal originalPrediction,
decimal adjustedPrediction
)
{
SetHoldings(_btcusdt, _positionSize * _leverage);
_inLongPosition = true;
_inShortPosition = false;
_positionEntryTime = Time;
_entryPrice = price;
Log(
$"ENTERED LONG at {Time}, Price: {price}, Position Size: {_positionSize * _leverage}, Model State: {_currentModelState}"
);
var trade = new TradeRecord
{
EntryTime = Time,
EntryPrice = price,
Direction = "LONG",
ModelStateAtEntry = _currentModelState,
OriginalPrediction = originalPrediction,
AdjustedPrediction = adjustedPrediction,
};
_tradeRecords.Add(trade);
}
private void EnterShort(
decimal price,
decimal originalPrediction,
decimal adjustedPrediction
)
{
SetHoldings(_btcusdt, -_positionSize * _leverage);
_inShortPosition = true;
_inLongPosition = false;
_positionEntryTime = Time;
_entryPrice = price;
Log(
$"ENTERED SHORT at {Time}, Price: {price}, Position Size: {_positionSize * _leverage}, Model State: {_currentModelState}"
);
var trade = new TradeRecord
{
EntryTime = Time,
EntryPrice = price,
Direction = "SHORT",
ModelStateAtEntry = _currentModelState,
OriginalPrediction = originalPrediction,
AdjustedPrediction = adjustedPrediction,
};
_tradeRecords.Add(trade);
}
private void ClosePosition(
string positionType,
decimal price,
string reason,
decimal originalPrediction,
decimal adjustedPrediction
)
{
Liquidate(_btcusdt);
decimal pnl = 0;
if (positionType == "LONG")
{
pnl = (price - _entryPrice) / _entryPrice * 100;
_inLongPosition = false;
}
else
{
pnl = (_entryPrice - price) / _entryPrice * 100;
_inShortPosition = false;
}
Log(
$"EXITED {positionType} at {Time}, Price: {price}, PnL: {pnl:F2}%, Reason: {reason}, Model State: {_currentModelState}"
);
if (_tradeRecords.Count > 0)
{
var lastTrade = _tradeRecords[_tradeRecords.Count - 1];
lastTrade.ExitTime = Time;
lastTrade.ExitPrice = price;
lastTrade.PnL = pnl;
lastTrade.ExitReason = reason;
}
}
private decimal[] CalculateFeatures(TradeBar bar)
{
decimal[] features = new decimal[_modelParams.FeatureCols.Length];
int hour = Time.Hour;
int minute = Time.Minute;
decimal dayPct = (hour * 60 + minute) / (24m * 60m);
for (int i = 0; i < _modelParams.FeatureCols.Length; i++)
{
switch (_modelParams.FeatureCols[i])
{
case "close_open_ratio":
features[i] = bar.Close / bar.Open;
break;
case "high_low_ratio":
features[i] = bar.High / bar.Low;
break;
case "day_pct":
features[i] = dayPct;
break;
default:
Log($"Unknown feature: {_modelParams.FeatureCols[i]}");
features[i] = 0;
break;
}
}
return features;
}
/// <summary>
/// This method is written just for fun! Don't use it in your production code :P
/// </summary>
/// <param name="o0O0"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
private string O0o0o(string o0O0)
{
byte[] OO0o = Convert.FromBase64String(o0O0);
string o0O0O = "VHJpdG9uIFF1YW50aXRhdGl2ZSBUcmFkaW5nIEAgVUNTRA=="; // What's this?
byte[] O0o0 = Encoding.UTF8.GetBytes(o0O0O);
byte[] o00O = new byte[OO0o.Length];
for (int o = 0; o < OO0o.Length; o++)
{
byte O0 = OO0o[o];
byte o0 = O0o0[o % O0o0.Length];
byte O0o = (byte)(O0 ^ o0);
byte o00 = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < 8; i++)
{
o00 = (byte)((o00 << 1) | (O0o & 1));
O0o >>= 1;
}
o00O[o] = o00;
}
return Encoding.UTF8.GetString(o00O);
}
private void LoadModelParameters()
{
Log($"Model parameters file {ModelParamsFileName} not found.");
// NOTE: base64 is used for encoding string easier in C# code, I can simply use the direct base64 transformation, but the additional manipulation is for fun :)
string defaultModelJsonStr = O0o0o("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");
try
{
Log($"defaultModelJsonStr: {defaultModelJsonStr}");
string jsonModelStr = Encoding.UTF8.GetString(Convert.FromBase64String(defaultModelJsonStr));
_modelParams = JsonConvert.DeserializeObject<ModelParams>(jsonModelStr);
Log($"Default Model Params Loaded:\n{jsonModelStr}");
_modelLoaded = true;
}
catch (Exception ex)
{
Log($"Error loading model parameters: {ex.Message}");
Log($"Exception type: {ex.GetType().Name}");
if (ex.InnerException != null)
{
Log($"Inner exception: {ex.InnerException.Message}");
}
_modelLoaded = false;
}
return;
}
private void LoadThresholdArray()
{
Log($"Threshold array file {ThresholdArrayFileName} not found.");
string defaultThresholdArrayStr = O0o0o("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");
try
{
Log($"defaultThresholdArrayStr: {defaultThresholdArrayStr}");
string jsonThresholdArrayStr = Encoding.UTF8.GetString(Convert.FromBase64String(defaultThresholdArrayStr));
Log($"Default Threshold Array Loaded:\n{jsonThresholdArrayStr}");
_thresholdArr = JsonConvert.DeserializeObject<decimal[]>(jsonThresholdArrayStr);
}
catch (Exception ex)
{
Log($"Error loading ThresholdArrayStr: {ex.Message}");
Log($"Exception type: {ex.GetType().Name}");
if (ex.InnerException != null)
{
Log($"Inner exception: {ex.InnerException.Message}");
}
}
return;
// string jsonStr = ObjectStore.Read(ThresholdArrayFileName);
// try
// {
// _thresholdArr = JsonConvert.DeserializeObject<decimal[]>(jsonStr);
// var formattedJson = JsonConvert.SerializeObject(_thresholdArr, Formatting.None);
// Log($"Threshold array loaded with {_thresholdArr.Length} values. Array: {formattedJson}\nBase64: {Convert.ToBase64String(Encoding.UTF8.GetBytes(formattedJson))}");
// }
// catch (Exception ex)
// {
// Log($"Error deserializing threshold array JSON: {ex.Message}");
// InitializeDefaultThresholdArray();
// }
}
private void InitializeDefaultThresholdArray()
{
// Create a default threshold array with 200 points (0.5% resolution)
// Values will be distributed according to a Gaussian (Normal) distribution
int arraySize = 200;
_thresholdArr = new decimal[arraySize];
double mean = 0.5;
double stdDev = 0.15;
for (int i = 0; i < arraySize; i++)
{
double x = (double)i / (arraySize - 1);
// Apply sigmoid function to approximate Gaussian CDF
// This gives a reasonable S-shaped curve similar to the normal distribution CDF
double z = (x - mean) / stdDev;
double probability = 1.0 / (1.0 + Math.Exp(-z * 1.702));
_thresholdArr[i] = (decimal)probability;
}
Array.Sort(_thresholdArr);
Log(
$"Initialized default threshold array with {arraySize} Gaussian-distributed values."
);
}
private decimal PredictProbability(decimal[] features)
{
// sklearn RobustScaler equivalent
decimal[] scaledFeatures = new decimal[features.Length];
for (int i = 0; i < features.Length; i++)
{
scaledFeatures[i] = (features[i] - _modelParams.Center[i]) / _modelParams.Scale[i];
}
decimal logit = _modelParams.Intercept;
for (int i = 0; i < scaledFeatures.Length; i++)
{
logit += scaledFeatures[i] * _modelParams.Coefficients[i];
}
decimal prob = 1m / (1m + (decimal)Math.Exp(-(double)logit));
return prob;
}
private decimal GetProbabilityPercentile(decimal probability)
{
// If threshold array is not loaded, initialize it with default values
if (_thresholdArr == null || _thresholdArr.Length == 0)
{
InitializeDefaultThresholdArray();
}
int index = Array.BinarySearch(_thresholdArr, probability);
if (index >= 0)
{
return (decimal)index / (_thresholdArr.Length - 1);
}
else
{
// No direct match - get the insertion point
int insertPoint = ~index;
if (insertPoint == 0)
{
return 0m; // Probability is lower than all values in the array
}
else if (insertPoint >= _thresholdArr.Length)
{
return 1m; // Probability is higher than all values in the array
}
else
{
// Interpolate between the two closest points
decimal lowerProb = _thresholdArr[insertPoint - 1];
decimal upperProb = _thresholdArr[insertPoint];
decimal lowerPct = (decimal)(insertPoint - 1) / (_thresholdArr.Length - 1);
decimal upperPct = (decimal)insertPoint / (_thresholdArr.Length - 1);
// Linear interpolation
decimal ratio = (probability - lowerProb) / (upperProb - lowerProb);
return lowerPct + ratio * (upperPct - lowerPct);
}
}
}
}
}