| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Trades 5660 Average Win 0.30% Average Loss -0.30% Compounding Annual Return 17.836% Drawdown 45.100% Expectancy 0.129 Net Profit 167.957% Sharpe Ratio 0.762 Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio 21.384% Loss Rate 44% Win Rate 56% Profit-Loss Ratio 1.01 Alpha 0.193 Beta -0.146 Annual Standard Deviation 0.23 Annual Variance 0.053 Information Ratio 0.191 Tracking Error 0.298 Treynor Ratio -1.204 Total Fees $10793.45 Estimated Strategy Capacity $98000.00 |
from QuantConnect.Indicators import *
class ShortTermReversalVictor(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
self.SetStartDate(2015, 1, 1)
self.SetEndDate(2021, 1, 1)
self.SetCash(100000)
self.symbol = self.AddEquity('SPY', Resolution.Daily).Symbol
self.coarse_count = 500
self.stock_selection = 10 # 5
self.top_by_market_cap_count = 100
self.period = 21
self.SetWarmUp(timedelta(self.period))
self.long = []
self.short = []
# symbolData at each moment
self.symbolDataDict = {}
self.day = 1
self.selection_flag = False
self.UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Daily
self.AddUniverse(self.CoarseSelectionFunction, self.FineSelectionFunction)
self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.EveryDay(self.symbol), self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(self.symbol), self.Selection)
def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, changes):
# self.Debug('onChange')
# this will get triggered initially and after each weekly rebalance
for removed in changes.RemovedSecurities:
self.symbolDataDict.pop(removed.Symbol, None)
for security in changes.AddedSecurities:
security.SetLeverage(5)
symbol = security.Symbol
daily_history = self.History(symbol, self.period+1, Resolution.Daily)
if daily_history.empty:
self.Log(f"Not enough data for {symbol} yet")
continue
if symbol not in self.symbolDataDict.keys():
symbolData = SymbolData(symbol, self.period, self)
self.symbolDataDict[symbol] = symbolData
symbolData.warmup(daily_history)
def CoarseSelectionFunction(self, coarse):
#self.Debug('coarse')
if not self.selection_flag: # self.selection_flag is only true when day is 5 or it is a Friday.
return Universe.Unchanged
selected = sorted([x for x in coarse if x.HasFundamentalData and x.Market == 'usa' and x.Price > 1],
key=lambda x: x.DollarVolume, reverse=True)
selected = [x.Symbol for x in selected][:self.coarse_count]
return selected
def FineSelectionFunction(self, fine): # the long and short lists are updated daily
if not self.selection_flag: # self.selection_flag is only true when day is 5 or it is a Friday.
return Universe.Unchanged
fine = [x for x in fine if x.MarketCap != 0]
sorted_by_market_cap = sorted(fine, key = lambda x:x.MarketCap, reverse = True)
top_by_market_cap = [x.Symbol for x in sorted_by_market_cap[:self.top_by_market_cap_count]] # top_by_market_cap_count is 100
return top_by_market_cap
def OnData(self, data):
# onData gets called after onSecuritiesChanged here because we filtered the entire data first
#self.Debug('onData')
for symbol in self.symbolDataDict:
# you need to update this in case some of the stocks persisted into next selection period, which won't be warmed up in onSecuritiesChanged
security = self.Securities[symbol]
self.symbolDataDict[symbol].update_closes(security.Close)
self.symbolDataDict[symbol].update_highs(security.High)
self.symbolDataDict[symbol].update_lows(security.Low)
if not self.selection_flag:
return
self.selection_flag = False
"""dissected_performances = {symbol : self.symbolDataDict[symbol].dissected_return() for symbol in self.symbolDataDict.keys() if self.symbolDataDict[symbol].is_ready()}
sorted_by_dissected_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(dissected_performances.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True)]
self.long = sorted_by_dissected_perf[::-1][:self.stock_selection]
for symbol in sorted_by_dissected_perf:
if symbol not in self.long:
self.short.append(symbol)
if len(self.short) == self.stock_selection: # only need self.stock_selection # in short list
break"""
"""monthly_capital_volume_change = {symbol : self.symbolDataDict[symbol].monthly_capital_volume_change() for symbol in self.symbolDataDict.keys() if self.symbolDataDict[symbol].is_ready()}
weekly_capital_volume_change = {symbol : self.symbolDataDict[symbol].weekly_capital_volume_change() for symbol in self.symbolDataDict.keys() if self.symbolDataDict[symbol].is_ready()}
sorted_by_month_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(monthly_capital_volume_change.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True)]
sorted_by_week_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(weekly_capital_volume_change.items(), key=lambda item: item[1])]
self.long = sorted_by_week_perf[:self.stock_selection]
for symbol in sorted_by_month_perf:
if symbol not in self.long:
self.short.append(symbol)
if len(self.short) == self.stock_selection: # only need self.stock_selection # in short list
break"""
"""monthly_bounciness = {symbol : self.symbolDataDict[symbol].monthly_bounciness() for symbol in self.symbolDataDict.keys() if self.symbolDataDict[symbol].is_ready()}
weekly_bounciness = {symbol : self.symbolDataDict[symbol].weekly_bounciness() for symbol in self.symbolDataDict.keys() if self.symbolDataDict[symbol].is_ready()}
sorted_by_month_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(monthly_bounciness.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True)]
sorted_by_week_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(weekly_bounciness.items(), key=lambda item: item[1])]
self.long = sorted_by_week_perf[:self.stock_selection]
for symbol in sorted_by_month_perf:
if symbol not in self.long:
self.short.append(symbol)
if len(self.short) == self.stock_selection: # only need self.stock_selection # in short list
break"""
month_performances = {symbol : self.symbolDataDict[symbol].monthly_return() for symbol in self.symbolDataDict.keys() if self.symbolDataDict[symbol].is_ready()}
week_performances = {symbol : self.symbolDataDict[symbol].weekly_return() for symbol in self.symbolDataDict.keys() if self.symbolDataDict[symbol].is_ready()}
sorted_by_month_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(month_performances.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True)]
sorted_by_week_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(week_performances.items(), key=lambda item: item[1])]
self.long = sorted_by_week_perf[:self.stock_selection]
for symbol in sorted_by_month_perf:
if symbol not in self.long:
self.short.append(symbol)
if len(self.short) == self.stock_selection: # only need self.stock_selection # in short list
break
"""month_performances = {symbol : self.symbolDataDict[symbol].dissected_monthly_return() for symbol in self.symbolDataDict.keys() if self.symbolDataDict[symbol].is_ready()}
week_performances = {symbol : self.symbolDataDict[symbol].dissected_weekly_return() for symbol in self.symbolDataDict.keys() if self.symbolDataDict[symbol].is_ready()}
sorted_by_month_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(month_performances.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True)]
sorted_by_week_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(week_performances.items(), key=lambda item: item[1])]
self.long = sorted_by_month_perf[::-1][:self.stock_selection]
for symbol in sorted_by_month_perf:
if symbol not in self.long:
self.short.append(symbol)
if len(self.short) == self.stock_selection: # only need self.stock_selection # in short list
break"""
"""month_performances = {symbol : self.symbolDataDict[symbol].dissected_monthly_bounciness() for symbol in self.symbolDataDict.keys() if self.symbolDataDict[symbol].is_ready()}
week_performances = {symbol : self.symbolDataDict[symbol].dissected_weekly_return() for symbol in self.symbolDataDict.keys() if self.symbolDataDict[symbol].is_ready()}
sorted_by_month_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(month_performances.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True)]
sorted_by_week_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(week_performances.items(), key=lambda item: item[1])]
self.long = sorted_by_week_perf[:self.stock_selection]
for symbol in sorted_by_week_perf[::-1]:
if symbol not in self.long:
self.short.append(symbol)
if len(self.short) == self.stock_selection: # only need self.stock_selection # in short list
break"""
invested = [x.Key for x in self.Portfolio if x.Value.Invested]
for symbol in invested: # if they are not to be selected again, then they are liquidated
if symbol not in self.long:# + self.short:
self.Liquidate(symbol)
for symbol in self.long:
if self.Securities[symbol].Price != 0 and self.Securities[symbol].IsTradable:
self.SetHoldings(symbol, 1 / len(self.long)) # split portfolio evenly
#for symbol in self.short:
# if self.Securities[symbol].Price != 0 and self.Securities[symbol].IsTradable:
# self.SetHoldings(symbol, -1 / len(self.short)) # split portfolio evenly
self.long.clear()
self.short.clear()
def Selection(self):
if self.day == 5:
self.selection_flag = True
self.day += 1
if self.day > 5:
self.day = 1
class SymbolData():
def __init__(self, symbol, period, algo):
self.symbol = symbol
self.algo = algo
self.closes = RollingWindow[float](period+1)
self.capital_volumes = RollingWindow[float](period)
self.highs = RollingWindow[float](period)
self.lows = RollingWindow[float](period)
self.period = period
def update_closes(self, close):
self.closes.Add(close)
def update_highs(self, high):
self.highs.Add(high)
def update_lows(self, low):
self.lows.Add(low)
def weekly_bounciness(self):
high = [self.highs[i] for i in range(0,5)]
low = [self.lows[i] for i in range(self.period-5, self.period)]
diff = sum([high[i]/low[i] - 1 for i in range(len(high))])
return diff
def monthly_bounciness(self):
high = [self.highs[i] for i in range(self.period)]
low = [self.lows[i] for i in range(self.period)]
diff = sum([high[i]/low[i] - 1 for i in range(len(high))])
return diff
def dissected_weekly_bounciness(self):
daily_return = sorted([self.highs[i]/self.lows[i] - 1 for i in range(0,6)])
high3 = sum(daily_return[3:])
low3 = sum(daily_return[:3])
return high3-low3
def dissected_monthly_bounciness(self) -> float:
daily_return = sorted([self.highs[i]/self.lows[i] - 1 for i in range(0,self.period)])
high_half = sum(daily_return[self.period//2:])
low_half = sum(daily_return[:self.period//2])
return high_half-low_half
def update_capital_volume(self, capital_volume):
self.capital_volumes.Add(capital_volume)
def weekly_return(self) -> float:
return self.closes[0] / self.closes[5] - 1
def monthly_return(self) -> float:
return self.closes[0] / self.closes[self.period-1] - 1
def dissected_weekly_return(self) -> float:
daily_return = sorted([(self.closes[i]/self.closes[i+1])-1 for i in range(0,6)])
high3 = sum(daily_return[3:])
low3 = sum(daily_return[:3])
return high3-low3
def dissected_monthly_return(self) -> float:
daily_return = sorted([(self.closes[i]/self.closes[i+1])-1 for i in range(0,self.period)])
high_half = sum(daily_return[self.period//2:])
low_half = sum(daily_return[:self.period//2])
return high_half-low_half
def dissected_monthly_return(self) -> float:
daily_return = sorted([(self.closes[i]/self.closes[i+1])-1 for i in range(0,self.period)])
high_half = sum(daily_return[self.period//2:])
low_half = sum(daily_return[:self.period//2])
return high_half-low_half
def is_ready(self) -> bool:
return self.closes.IsReady and self.highs.IsReady and self.lows.IsReady
def dissected_return(self):
capital_volume = [(i,self.capital_volumes[i]) for i in range(self.period)]
capital_volume = sorted(capital_volume, key=lambda c:c[1], reverse=True)
daily_return = [(self.closes[i]/self.closes[i+1])-1 for i in range(0,self.period)]
m_high = sum([daily_return[c[0]] for c in capital_volume[:(self.period//2)]])
m_low = sum([daily_return[c[0]] for c in capital_volume[(self.period//2):]])
return m_high-m_low
def monthly_capital_volume_change(self) -> float:
return self.capital_volumes[0] / self.capital_volumes[self.period-1] - 1
def weekly_capital_volume_change(self) -> float:
return self.capital_volumes[0] / self.capital_volumes[5] - 1
def warmup(self, daily_history):
if daily_history.empty:
return
closes = daily_history.loc[self.symbol].close
for time, c in closes.iteritems():
self.update_closes(c)
highs = daily_history.loc[self.symbol].high
for time, h in highs.iteritems():
self.update_highs(h)
lows = daily_history.loc[self.symbol].low
for time, l in lows.iteritems():
self.update_lows(l)
capital_volumes = daily_history.loc[self.symbol].close*daily_history.loc[self.symbol].volume
for time, capital_volume in capital_volumes.iteritems():
self.update_capital_volume(capital_volume)class ShortTermReversalExperimental(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
self.SetStartDate(2000, 1, 1)
self.SetEndDate(2021, 1, 1)
self.SetCash(100000)
self.symbol = self.AddEquity('SPY', Resolution.Daily).Symbol
self.coarse_count = 500
self.stock_selection = 5
self.top_by_market_cap_count = 100
self.period = 21
self.long = []
self.short = []
# Daily close data
self.data = {}
self.day = 1
self.selection_flag = False
self.UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Daily
self.AddUniverse(self.CoarseSelectionFunction, self.FineSelectionFunction)
self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.EveryDay(self.symbol), self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(self.symbol), self.Selection)
def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, changes):
for security in changes.AddedSecurities:
security.SetLeverage(5)
def CoarseSelectionFunction(self, coarse):
# Update the rolling window every day, with latest prices.
for stock in coarse:
symbol = stock.Symbol
if symbol not in self.Portfolio:
self.AddEquity(symbol, Resolution.Daily)
# Store monthly price.
if symbol in self.data:
self.data[symbol].update(stock.AdjustedPrice)
if not self.selection_flag: # self.selection_flag is only true when day is 5 or it is a Friday.
return Universe.Unchanged
selected = sorted([x for x in coarse if x.HasFundamentalData and x.Market == 'usa' and x.Price > 1],
key=lambda x: x.DollarVolume, reverse=True)
selected = [x.Symbol for x in selected][:self.coarse_count]
# Warmup price rolling windows.
for symbol in selected:
if symbol in self.data: # if data is already stored, skip
continue
self.data[symbol] = SymbolData(self.period) # Creates a new SymbolData object (defined below) with a period and RollingWindow of closing prices
history = self.History(symbol, self.period, Resolution.Daily)
if history.empty:
self.Log(f"Not enough data for {symbol} yet")
continue
closes = history.loc[symbol].close
for time, close in closes.iteritems():
self.data[symbol].update(close)
return [x for x in selected if self.data[x].is_ready()]
def FineSelectionFunction(self, fine): # the long and short lists are updated daily
fine = [x for x in fine if x.MarketCap != 0]
sorted_by_market_cap = sorted(fine, key = lambda x:x.MarketCap, reverse = True)
top_by_market_cap = [x.Symbol for x in sorted_by_market_cap[:self.top_by_market_cap_count]] # top_by_market_cap_count is 100
month_performances = {symbol : self.data[symbol].monthly_return() for symbol in top_by_market_cap}
week_performances = {symbol : self.data[symbol].weekly_return() for symbol in top_by_market_cap}
sorted_by_month_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(month_performances.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True)]
sorted_by_week_perf = [x[0] for x in sorted(week_performances.items(), key=lambda item: item[1])]
sorted_by_week_perf = [symbol for symbol in sorted_by_week_perf if self.data[symbol].macd_diff < .01]
# self.long = sorted_by_week_perf[:self.stock_selection] # only self.stock_selection # of these
# MACD assessment component
macd_perf = []
for symbol in sorted_by_week_perf:
macd = self.MACD(symbol, 12, 26, 9, MovingAverageType.Exponential, Resolution.Daily)
if (macd.Current.Value - macd.Signal.Current.Value) / macd.Fast.Current.Value > .01:
macd_perf.append(symbol)
self.long = macd_perf[:self.stock_selection]
for symbol in sorted_by_month_perf:
if symbol not in self.long:
self.short.append(symbol)
if len(self.short) == self.stock_selection: # only need self.stock_selection # in short list
break
return self.long + self.short
def OnData(self, data): # equities are kept for at least a week, at the end of week update portfolio
if not self.selection_flag:
return
self.selection_flag = False
invested = [x.Key for x in self.Portfolio if x.Value.Invested]
for symbol in invested: # if they are not to be selected again, then they are liquidated
if symbol not in self.long + self.short:
self.Liquidate(symbol)
for symbol in self.long:
if self.Securities[symbol].Price != 0 and self.Securities[symbol].IsTradable:
self.SetHoldings(symbol, 1 / len(self.long)) # split portfolio evenly
for symbol in self.short:
if self.Securities[symbol].Price != 0 and self.Securities[symbol].IsTradable:
self.SetHoldings(symbol, -1 / len(self.short)) # split portfolio evenly
self.long.clear()
self.short.clear()
def Selection(self):
if self.day == 5:
self.selection_flag = True
self.day += 1
if self.day > 5:
self.day = 1