| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Trades 602 Average Win 0.29% Average Loss -0.12% Compounding Annual Return 33.029% Drawdown 14.900% Expectancy 0.911 Net Profit 37.952% Sharpe Ratio 1.338 Loss Rate 44% Win Rate 56% Profit-Loss Ratio 2.42 Alpha 0.304 Beta -0.331 Annual Standard Deviation 0.189 Annual Variance 0.036 Information Ratio 0.451 Tracking Error 0.218 Treynor Ratio -0.764 Total Fees $623.35 |
using MathNet.Numerics;
using MathNet.Numerics.Statistics;
using QuantConnect.Indicators;
using System;
using System.Linq;
/// <summary>
/// Indictor to indicate the percentage (0.10 = 10%) of which a security gapped over the last period;
/// </summary>
namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp.Helpers
{
public class GapIndicator : WindowIndicator<IndicatorDataPoint>
{
public GapIndicator(int period)
: base("GAP(" + period + ")", period)
{
}
public GapIndicator(string name, int period)
: base(name, period)
{
}
public override bool IsReady
{
get { return Samples >= Period; }
}
protected override decimal ComputeNextValue(IReadOnlyWindow<IndicatorDataPoint> window, IndicatorDataPoint input)
{
if (window.Count < 3) return 0m;
var diff = new double[window.Count];
// load input data for regression
for (int i = 0; i < window.Count - 1; i++)
{
diff[i] = (double)((window[i + 1] - window[i]) / (window[i] == 0 ? 1 : window[i].Value));
}
return (decimal) diff.MaximumAbsolute();
}
}
}using MathNet.Numerics;
using MathNet.Numerics.Statistics;
using System;
using System.Linq;
using QuantConnect.Data.Market;
using QuantConnect.Data.UniverseSelection;
using QuantConnect.Indicators;
using QuantConnect.Securities;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using QuantConnect.Data.Fundamental;
using QuantConnect.Brokerages;
using QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp.Helpers;
using System.Net;
using System.Text.RegularExpressions;
namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp
{
/*
Momentum strategy according to Andreas F. Clenow book
'Stocks on the Move Beating the Market with Hedge Fund Momentum Strategies'
** Objective of the algorithm: **
The algorithm selects from the SP500 universe the stocks with fastest rising stocks with limited volatility.
Every week the risk of the portfolio is balanced. Once a month the stocks are rebalanced.
The algo only buys if the market is in a high trend (Bulish);
** Trade rules: **
The rules are:
- Rule 00: SP500 stocks
- Rule 01: Trade on Wednesdays to limit number of trades;
- Rule 02: Twice a month reset the positions sizes (risk);
- Rule 03: Rebalance every week;
- Rule 04: If the stock is not in the top 100/ 20% ranking, sell it;
- Rule 05: If the stock is below its 100 days moving average, sell it;
- Rule 06: If the stock gapped > 15%, sell it;
- Rule 07: If the stock left the index, sell it;
- Rule 08: If the SP500 is above the 200 days moving average we buy stocks, otherwise not;
- Rule 09: Calculate the position sizes, based on 10 basis points using ATR formula;
- Rule 10: Momentum is calculated based on 90 past days annualized exponential regression slope;
- Rule 11: Momentum is weighted for volatility adjustment (r^2);
- Rule 12: Position Size = (portfolioSize*0,001/ ATR)= #Shares;
- Rule 13: Trade maximum 30 stocks;
** Change history: **
20180102_01: QT, created algo based on cloned algorithm. Refactoring algo.
20180103_01: QT, seems that universe selecting may not have own calculations.
*/
/// <summary>
/// Momentum strategy according to Andreas F. Clenow book
/// Stocks on the Move Beating the Market with Hedge Fund Momentum Strategies'
/// </summary>
public class MomentumStrategyStockUniverseAlgorithm : QCAlgorithm
{
private const string Spy = "SPY";
//https://www.barchart.com/
private readonly List<string> _sp500FixedStockList = new List<string>() { "A", "AAL", "AAP", "AAPL", "ABBV", "ABC", "ABT", "ACN", "ADBE", "ADI", "ADM", "ADP", "ADS", "ADSK", "AEE", "AEP", "AES", "AET", "AFL", "AGN", "AIG", "AIV", "AIZ", "AJG", "AKAM", "ALB", "ALGN", "ALK", "ALL", "ALLE", "ALXN", "AMAT", "AMD", "AME", "AMG", "AMGN", "AMP", "AMT", "AMZN", "ANDV", "ANSS", "ANTM", "AON", "AOS", "APA", "APC", "APD", "APH", "APTV", "ARE", "ARNC", "ATVI", "AVB", "AVGO", "AVY", "AWK", "AXP", "AYI", "AZO", "BA", "BAC", "BAX", "BBT", "BBY", "BDX", "BEN", "BF.B", "BHF", "BHGE", "BIIB", "BK", "BLK", "BLL", "BMY", "BRK.B", "BSX", "BWA", "BXP", "C", "CA", "CAG", "CAH", "CAT", "CB", "CBG", "CBOE", "CBS", "CCI", "CCL", "CDNS", "CELG", "CERN", "CF", "CFG", "CHD", "CHK", "CHRW", "CHTR", "CI", "CINF", "CL", "CLX", "CMA", "CMCSA", "CME", "CMG", "CMI", "CMS", "CNC", "CNP", "COF", "COG", "COL", "COO", "COP", "COST", "COTY", "CPB", "CRM", "CSCO", "CSRA", "CSX", "CTAS", "CTL", "CTSH", "CTXS", "CVS", "CVX", "CXO", "D", "DAL", "DE", "DFS", "DG", "DGX", "DHI", "DHR", "DIS", "DISCA", "DISCK", "DISH", "DLR", "DLTR", "DOV", "DPS", "DRE", "DRI", "DTE", "DUK", "DVA", "DVN", "DWDP", "DXC", "EA", "EBAY", "ECL", "ED", "EFX", "EIX", "EL", "EMN", "EMR", "EOG", "EQIX", "EQR", "EQT", "ES", "ESRX", "ESS", "ETFC", "ETN", "ETR", "EVHC", "EW", "EXC", "EXPD", "EXPE", "EXR", "F", "FAST", "FB", "FBHS", "FCX", "FDX", "FE", "FFIV", "FIS", "FISV", "FITB", "FL", "FLIR", "FLR", "FLS", "FMC", "FOX", "FOXA", "FRT", "FTI", "FTV", "GD", "GE", "GGP", "GILD", "GIS", "GLW", "GM", "GOOG", "GOOGL", "GPC", "GPN", "GPS", "GRMN", "GS", "GT", "GWW", "HAL", "HAS", "HBAN", "HBI", "HCA", "HCN", "HCP", "HD", "HES", "HIG", "HII", "HLT", "HOG", "HOLX", "HON", "HP", "HPE", "HPQ", "HRB", "HRL", "HRS", "HSIC", "HST", "HSY", "HUM", "IBM", "ICE", "IDXX", "IFF", "ILMN", "INCY", "INFO", "INTC", "INTU", "IP", "IPG", "IQV", "IR", "IRM", "ISRG", "IT", "ITW", "IVZ", "JBHT", "JCI", "JEC", "JNJ", "JNPR", "JPM", "JWN", "K", "KEY", "KHC", "KIM", "KLAC", "KMB", "KMI", "KMX", "KO", "KORS", "KR", "KSS", "KSU", "L", "LB", "LEG", "LEN", "LH", "LKQ", "LLL", "LLY", "LMT", "LNC", "LNT", "LOW", "LRCX", "LUK", "LUV", "LYB", "M", "MA", "MAA", "MAC", "MAR", "MAS", "MAT", "MCD", "MCHP", "MCK", "MCO", "MDLZ", "MDT", "MET", "MGM", "MHK", "MKC", "MLM", "MMC", "MMM", "MNST", "MO", "MON", "MOS", "MPC", "MRK", "MRO", "MS", "MSFT", "MSI", "MTB", "MTD", "MU", "MYL", "NAVI", "NBL", "NCLH", "NDAQ", "NEE", "NEM", "NFLX", "NFX", "NI", "NKE", "NLSN", "NOC", "NOV", "NRG", "NSC", "NTAP", "NTRS", "NUE", "NVDA", "NWL", "NWS", "NWSA", "O", "OKE", "OMC", "ORCL", "ORLY", "OXY", "PAYX", "PBCT", "PCAR", "PCG", "PCLN", "PDCO", "PEG", "PEP", "PFE", "PFG", "PG", "PGR", "PH", "PHM", "PKG", "PKI", "PLD", "PM", "PNC", "PNR", "PNW", "PPG", "PPL", "PRGO", "PRU", "PSA", "PSX", "PVH", "PWR", "PX", "PXD", "PYPL", "QCOM", "QRVO", "RCL", "RE", "REG", "REGN", "RF", "RHI", "RHT", "RJF", "RL", "RMD", "ROK", "ROP", "ROST", "RRC", "RSG", "RTN", "SBAC", "SBUX", "SCG", "SCHW", "SEE", "SHW", "SIG", "SJM", "SLB", "SLG", "SNA", "SNI", "SNPS", "SO", "SPG", "SPGI", "SRCL", "SRE", "STI", "STT", "STX", "STZ", "SWK", "SWKS", "SYF", "SYK", "SYMC", "SYY", "T", "TAP", "TDG", "TEL", "TGT", "TIF", "TJX", "TMK", "TMO", "TPR", "TRIP", "TROW", "TRV", "TSCO", "TSN", "TSS", "TWX", "TXN", "TXT", "UA", "UAA", "UAL", "UDR", "UHS", "ULTA", "UNH", "UNM", "UNP", "UPS", "URI", "USB", "UTX", "V", "VAR", "VFC", "VIAB", "VLO", "VMC", "VNO", "VRSK", "VRSN", "VRTX", "VTR", "VZ", "WAT", "WBA", "WDC", "WEC", "WFC", "WHR", "WLTW", "WM", "WMB", "WMT", "WRK", "WU", "WY", "WYN", "WYNN", "XEC", "XEL", "XL", "XLNX", "XOM", "XRAY", "XRX", "XYL", "YUM", "ZBH", "ZION", "ZTS"};
/// <summary>
/// Only used in backtest for caching the file results
/// </summary>
private Dictionary<DateTime, List<string>> _sp500List;
/// Rule 00: SP500 stocks
private static int _universeSelectMaxStocks = 500;
/// Rule 10: Momentum is calculated based on 90 past days annualized exponential regression slope;
private int _annualizedSlopeWindow = 90;
/// <summary>
/// Rule 05: If the stock is below its 100 days moving average, sell it;
/// </summary>
private int _movingAverageWindow = 100;
/// <summary>
/// ATR window
/// </summary>
private int _atrWindow = 20;
/// <summary>
/// Risk of the contract on the portfolio. Typically 1-5%. Take notice of contract size of (futures * price)
/// </summary>
private const decimal RiskPerContractOnPortfolio = 0.015m;
private ExponentialMovingAverage _spyMovingAverage;
private BollingerBands _spyBollingerBands;
/// <summary>
/// Holds our indicators per symbol
/// </summary>
private Dictionary<Symbol, CustomMomentumIndicator> _customIndicators = new Dictionary<QuantConnect.Symbol, CustomMomentumIndicator>(_universeSelectMaxStocks);
// Rule 08: If the SP500 is above the 200 days moving average we buy stocks, otherwise not;
private int _trendfilter = 200;
// Rule 04: If the stock is not in the top 100/ 20% ranking, sell it;
private int _topNStockOfSp500 = 100;
/// <summary>
/// Rule 06: If the stock gapped > 15% over period, sell it: Maximum Gap in percentage
/// </summary>
private decimal _maximumGap = 0.15m;
/// <summary>
/// Rule 06x: minimum annualized slope before buying stock.
/// </summary>
private decimal _minimumAnnualizedSlope = 0.0005m;
/// <summary>
/// Rule 06: If the stock gapped > 15% over period, sell it: Gap window
/// </summary>
private int _gapWindow = 90;
// Rule 13: Trade maximum 30 stocks;
private int _maxStockInPortfolio = 20;
private bool _isDebugging = true;
private bool _isPlotting = true;
private int _isLogSpyMovingAveragePivot = 0;
/// <summary>
/// Is debugging set, speed up processing
/// </summary>
public bool IsDebugging { get { return _isDebugging; } }
/// <summary>
/// Is plotting set
/// </summary>
public bool IsPlotting { get { return _isPlotting; } }
/// <summary>
/// Log messages only if IsDebugging
/// </summary>
/// <param name="message"></param>
public new void Log(string message)
{
if(IsDebugging)
base.Log(message);
}
/// <summary>
/// Initialise the data and resolution required, as well as the cash and start-end dates for your algorithm. All algorithms must initialized.
/// </summary>
public override void Initialize()
{
_isDebugging = false;
//Set trading window
SetStartDate(2017, 1, 1);
SetEndDate(2018, 2, 14);
//SetEndDate(DateTime.Now);
//Set brokermodel
SetCash(100000);
SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.InteractiveBrokersBrokerage, AccountType.Margin);
//Set moving average on SPY and benchmark
var spy = AddEquity(Spy);
SetBenchmark(spy.Symbol);
_spyMovingAverage = EMA(spy.Symbol, _trendfilter, Resolution.Daily);
_spyBollingerBands = BB(spy.Symbol, 21, 2, MovingAverageType.DoubleExponential, Resolution.Daily);
//Warm up indicator
IEnumerable<TradeBar> history = History(spy.Symbol, _trendfilter, Resolution.Daily);
foreach (TradeBar tradeBar in history)
{
_spyMovingAverage.Update(tradeBar.EndTime, tradeBar.Close);
_spyBollingerBands.Update(tradeBar.EndTime, tradeBar.Close);
}
//set warm up algorithm to avoid premature trading
SetWarmUp(_trendfilter);
//setup universe with filters for coarse and fine: https://www.quantconnect.com/docs#Universes
UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Daily;
AddUniverse(CoarseSelectionFunction, FineSelectionFunction);
//Rule 01: Trade on Wednesdays to limit number of trades;
//trade only on wednesdays at opening after 10 minutes
Schedule.On(DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Wednesday, DayOfWeek.Wednesday),
TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(Spy, 10), ScheduledOnWednesDay10MinutesAfterMarketOpen);
if (IsDebugging)
base.Log("*** DEBUGGING: TAKE CARE OF PARAMETERS ***");
}
private void ScheduledOnWednesDay10MinutesAfterMarketOpen()
{
if (IsWarmingUp) return;
if(_customIndicators == null || _customIndicators.Count == 0)
{
base.Log($"*** No custom indicators! *** ");
return;
}
//if (Time.DayOfWeek != DayOfWeek.Wednesday)
// return;
//#- Rule 10: Momentum is calculated based on self.momentum_window (90) past days annualized exponential regression slope;
//#- Rule 11: Momentum is weighted for volatility adjustment (r^2);
var sortedEquityListBySlope = _customIndicators.Where(
x => x.Value.IsReady
&& x.Value.AnnualizedSlope > _minimumAnnualizedSlope
&& x.Value.Gap < _maximumGap
&& Securities[x.Key].Price > x.Value.MovingAverage
).OrderByDescending(x => x.Value.AnnualizedSlope)
.Take(_topNStockOfSp500).ToList();
if (sortedEquityListBySlope.Count == 0)
base.Log($"sortedEquityListBySlope is empty. There where {_customIndicators.Count} custom Indicators.");
//Liquidate that is not in buylist
foreach (var security in Portfolio.Values)
{
if (!sortedEquityListBySlope.Exists(x => x.Value.Symbol == security.Symbol))
{
if (security.Invested)
{
#if JO_DEBUG
Log($"Liquidate {security.Symbol} from Holdings");
#endif
Liquidate(security.Symbol);
if (_customIndicators.ContainsKey(security.Symbol))
_customIndicators.Remove(security.Symbol);
}
}
}
#if JO_DEBUG
foreach (var security in sortedEquityListBySlope)
Log($"Slope: {security.Value.AnnualizedSlope},indicator: {security.Value.ToDetailedString()}");
#endif
// Do we have cash to trade?
if (Portfolio.Cash > 0)
{
decimal estimatedPortfolioCashBalance = Portfolio.Cash;
foreach (var data in sortedEquityListBySlope)
{
CustomMomentumIndicator customIndicator = data.Value;
var symbol = customIndicator.Symbol;
if (!customIndicator.IsReady)
base.Log($"!customerIndicator[{customIndicator}].IsReady");
//- Rule 08: If the SP500 is above the 200 days moving average we buy stocks, otherwise not;
if (Securities[Spy].Price > _spyMovingAverage)
{
var risk = Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue * RiskPerContractOnPortfolio;
var weight = (risk / customIndicator.Atr) * Securities[symbol].Price / Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue * 100;
//^TO-DO: not working.
#if JO_DEBUG
Log($"BUY >> {symbol} weight: {weight}, price: {Securities[symbol].Price}");
#endif
SetHoldings(symbol, 1 / (double)_maxStockInPortfolio);
}
}
}
//plot fir custom indicator
if(IsPlotting)
{
var customIndicator = sortedEquityListBySlope.FirstOrDefault();
Plot("FirstIndicator", "Price", Securities[customIndicator.Key].Close);
Plot("FirstIndicator", "MovingAverage", customIndicator.Value.MovingAverage);
Plot("FirstIndicator", "Gap", customIndicator.Value.Gap);
Plot("FirstIndicator", "AnnualizedSlope", customIndicator.Value.AnnualizedSlope);
Plot("FirstIndicator", "Atr", customIndicator.Value.Atr);
}
}
#region data selection
/// <summary>
/// Select S&P500 stocks only:
/// Market capitalization must be greater than or equal to $6.1 billion USD
/// Annual dollar value traded to float-adjusted market capitalization is greater than 1.0
/// Minimum monthly trading volume of 250,000 shares in each of the six months leading up to the evaluation date
/// </summary>
/// <param name="coarse"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public IEnumerable<Symbol> CoarseSelectionFunction(IEnumerable<CoarseFundamental> coarse)
{
//const decimal MarketCapitalization = 2100000000m;
//^not supported by Quantconnect;
var sp500List = GetSP500SymbolList(Time.Date);
const decimal DollarVolume = 21000000m;
//if (!_rebalanceFlag) return Enumerable.Empty<Symbol>();
// Market capitalization must be greater than or equal to $6.1 billion USD, Traded shares x Price
var filtered = from x in coarse
where x.HasFundamentalData
where x.DollarVolume >= DollarVolume
//where x.Volume > 250000
where x.Price > 10
join SP500 in sp500List on x.Symbol.Value equals SP500
select x;
var topCoarse = filtered.Take(_universeSelectMaxStocks);
return topCoarse.Select(x => x.Symbol);
}
//Select S&P500 stocks only:
//Not possible at quantconnect so try to select common stock, primary share and dividend share
public IEnumerable<Symbol> FineSelectionFunction(IEnumerable<FineFundamental> fine)
{
//if (!_rebalanceFlag) return Enumerable.Empty<Symbol>();
var filtered = from x in fine
where x.SecurityReference.SecurityType == "ST00000001" &&
x.SecurityReference.IsPrimaryShare
select x;
return filtered.Select(x => x.Symbol);
}
#endregion data selection
// this event fires whenever we have changes to our universe
public override void OnSecuritiesChanged(SecurityChanges changes)
{
if (changes.AddedSecurities.Count > 0)
{
#if JO_DEBUG
Log("Securities added: " + string.Join(",", changes.AddedSecurities.Select(x => x.Symbol.Value)));
#endif
foreach (Security security in changes.AddedSecurities)
{
if (!_customIndicators.ContainsKey(security.Symbol))
{
var customIndicator = new CustomMomentumIndicator(security.Symbol, _annualizedSlopeWindow, _movingAverageWindow, _gapWindow, _atrWindow);
//warm up indicator
var history = History(security.Symbol, customIndicator.Window, Resolution.Daily);
foreach (TradeBar tradeBar in history)
customIndicator.Update(tradeBar);
if (customIndicator.IsReady)
{
_customIndicators.Add(security.Symbol, customIndicator);
RegisterIndicator(security.Symbol, customIndicator, Resolution.Daily);
//Log($"_securityChanges.AddedSecurities, Security: {security} with warmup of {customIndicator.Window} and indicator {customIndicator}.");
}
else
base.Log($"*** _securityChanges.AddedSecurities, Security: {security} not ready!");
}
}
}
if (changes.RemovedSecurities.Count > 0)
{
#if JO_DEBUG
Log("Securities removed: " + string.Join(",", changes.RemovedSecurities.Select(x => x.Symbol.Value)));
#endif
foreach (var security in changes.RemovedSecurities)
{
if (security.Invested)
{
Liquidate(security.Symbol);
if (_customIndicators.ContainsKey(security.Symbol))
_customIndicators.Remove(security.Symbol);
#if JO_DEBUG
Log(string.Format("Security.Invested: Securities removed: {0} ", security));
#endif
}
}
}
}
/// <summary>
/// Get SP500 symbols through the years
/// Credits to AutomatedMachine
/// </summary>
/// <param name="dateTime"></param>
/// <returns></returns>
public List<string> GetSP500SymbolList(DateTime dateTime)
{
if (LiveMode)
return _sp500FixedStockList;
if (_sp500List == null)
{
_sp500List = new Dictionary<DateTime, List<string>>();
//url with sp500 csv file
string url = @"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12lUYUHYWNYhLBvJGcsXp2ZBXdJ7g3-Sspwvg0L62NAk/gviz/tq?tqx=out:csv&sheet=Backtest_CSV";
using (var client = new WebClient())
{
// fetch the file from dropbox
var file = client.DownloadString(url);
file = Regex.Replace(file, "\"", string.Empty);
// split the file into lines and add to our cache
foreach (var line in file.Split(new[] { '\n', '\r' }, StringSplitOptions.RemoveEmptyEntries))
{
var csv = line.ToCsv();
var date = DateTime.ParseExact(csv[0], "yyyy-MM-dd", null); //2017-09-18
var symbols = csv.Skip(1).ToList();
_sp500List[date] = symbols;
}
}
}
var result = _sp500List.OrderByDescending(x => x.Key).FirstOrDefault(x => x.Key < dateTime).Value;
if(result == null)
result = _sp500List.OrderBy(x => x.Key).FirstOrDefault().Value;
return result;
}
// Fire plotting events once per day:
public override void OnEndOfDay()
{
if (Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue > 0)
{
var accountLeverage = Portfolio.TotalAbsoluteHoldingsCost / Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue;
Plot("Leverage", "Leverage", accountLeverage);
}
if (!Securities.ContainsKey(Spy))
{
base.Log(string.Format("!data.ContainsKey({0}) ", Spy));
return;
}
#if JO_DEBUG
//- Rule 08: If the SP500 is above the 200 days moving average we buy stocks, otherwise not;
if (Securities[Spy].Price <= _spyMovingAverage)
{
//$TODO: buy T-note/ gold/ silver?
if (_isLogSpyMovingAveragePivot >= 0)
{
Log(string.Format("Spy in downtrend: {0} < {1}", Securities[Spy].Price, _spyMovingAverage));
_isLogSpyMovingAveragePivot = -1;
}
}
else
{
if (_isLogSpyMovingAveragePivot <= 0)
{
Log(string.Format("Spy in uptrend: {0} > {1}", Securities[Spy].Price, _spyMovingAverage));
_isLogSpyMovingAveragePivot = 1;
}
}
#endif
///Plotting
//Assuming daily mode,dont chart in a smaller res and kill quota
if (IsPlotting)
{
if (Securities.ContainsKey(Spy))
{
Plot(Spy, "Price", Securities[Spy].Close);
if (_spyMovingAverage.IsReady)
{
Plot(Spy, _spyMovingAverage);
}
if(_spyBollingerBands.IsReady)
{
Plot(Spy, _spyBollingerBands.UpperBand, _spyBollingerBands.MiddleBand, _spyBollingerBands.LowerBand);
}
}
}
}
}
}using MathNet.Numerics;
using MathNet.Numerics.LinearAlgebra;
using QuantConnect.Indicators;
using System;
using System.Linq;
//Copied from this forum:
//href https://www.quantconnect.com/forum/discussion/695/adjusted-slope--exponential-slope----annualized-slope--r-squuared--adjusted-slope/p1
namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp.Helpers
{
public class AnnualizedExponentialSlopeIndicator : WindowIndicator<IndicatorDataPoint>
{
/// <summary>
/// Array representing the time.
/// </summary>
private readonly double[] t;
public AnnualizedExponentialSlopeIndicator(int period)
: base("AESI(" + period + ")", period)
{
t = Vector<double>.Build.Dense(period, i => i + 1).ToArray();
}
public AnnualizedExponentialSlopeIndicator(string name, int period)
: base(name, period)
{
t = Vector<double>.Build.Dense(period, i => i + 1).ToArray();
}
protected override decimal ComputeNextValue(IReadOnlyWindow<IndicatorDataPoint> window, IndicatorDataPoint input)
{
// Until the window is ready, the indicator returns the input value.
if (window.Samples <= window.Size) return 0m;
// Sort the window by time, convert the observations to double and transform it to an array
var series = window
.OrderBy(i => i.Time)
.Select(i => Convert.ToDouble(Math.Log(Convert.ToDouble(i.Value))))
.ToArray();
// Fit OLS
// solves y=a + b*x via linear regression
// http://numerics.mathdotnet.com/Regression.html
var ols = Fit.Line(x: t, y: series);
var intercept = ols.Item1;
var slope = ols.Item2;
//Intercept.Update(input.Time, (decimal) ols.Item1);
//Slope.Update(input.Time, (decimal) ols.Item2);
// compute rsquared
var rsquared = GoodnessOfFit.RSquared(t.Select(x => intercept + slope * x), series);
// anything this small can be viewed as flat
if (double.IsNaN(slope) || Math.Abs(slope) < 1e-25) return 0m;
// trading days per year for us equities
const int dayCount = 250;
// annualize dy/dt
var annualSlope = ((Math.Pow(Math.Exp(slope), dayCount)) - 1) * 100;
// scale with rsquared
annualSlope = annualSlope * Math.Pow(rsquared, 2);
//annualSlope = annualSlope * rsquared;
if (annualSlope >= (double)decimal.MaxValue || annualSlope <= (double)decimal.MinValue)
{
annualSlope = 0;
//Debug("Negative slope due to arithmic overflow");
}
return Convert.ToDecimal(annualSlope);
}
}
}using MathNet.Numerics;
using MathNet.Numerics.LinearAlgebra;
using QuantConnect.Data.Market;
using QuantConnect.Indicators;
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using System.Linq;
//Copied from this forum:
//href https://www.quantconnect.com/forum/discussion/695/adjusted-slope--exponential-slope----annualized-slope--r-squuared--adjusted-slope/p1
namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp.Helpers
{
public class CustomMomentumIndicator : TradeBarIndicator
{
private Symbol _symbol;
private int _windowSize;
public readonly AnnualizedExponentialSlopeIndicator AnnualizedSlope;
public readonly ExponentialMovingAverage MovingAverage;
public readonly GapIndicator Gap;
public readonly AverageTrueRange Atr;
public CustomMomentumIndicator(Symbol symbol, int annualizedSlopeWindow, int movingAverageWindow, int gapWindow, int atrWindow) : base($"CMI({symbol}, {annualizedSlopeWindow}, {movingAverageWindow}, {gapWindow})")
{
_symbol = symbol;
AnnualizedSlope = new AnnualizedExponentialSlopeIndicator(annualizedSlopeWindow);
MovingAverage = new ExponentialMovingAverage(movingAverageWindow);
Gap = new GapIndicator(gapWindow);
Atr = new AverageTrueRange(atrWindow);
_windowSize = (new int[] { movingAverageWindow, annualizedSlopeWindow, gapWindow, atrWindow }).Max();
}
public Symbol Symbol { get { return _symbol; } }
public override void Reset()
{
AnnualizedSlope.Reset();
MovingAverage.Reset();
Gap.Reset();
Atr.Reset();
base.Reset();
}
protected override decimal ComputeNextValue(TradeBar input)
{
AnnualizedSlope.Update(input.EndTime, input.Value);
MovingAverage.Update(input.EndTime, input.Value);
Gap.Update(input.EndTime, input.Value);
Atr.Update(input);
return AnnualizedSlope;
}
/// <summary>
/// Are the indicators ready to be used?
/// </summary>
public override bool IsReady
{
get { return AnnualizedSlope.IsReady && MovingAverage.IsReady && Gap.IsReady && Atr.IsReady; }
}
/// <summary>
/// Returns the Window of the indicator required to warm up indicator
/// </summary>
public int Window
{
get {return _windowSize;}
}
public new string ToDetailedString()
{
return $"Symbol:{_symbol} Slope:{AnnualizedSlope.ToDetailedString()} Average:{MovingAverage.ToDetailedString()} Gap:{Gap.ToDetailedString()} Atr:{Atr.ToDetailedString()} IsReady:{IsReady}";
}
}
}