| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Orders 908 Average Win 0.29% Average Loss -0.30% Compounding Annual Return 6.221% Drawdown 30.500% Expectancy 0.195 Start Equity 100000 End Equity 129975.18 Net Profit 29.975% Sharpe Ratio 0.027 Sortino Ratio 0.03 Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio 7.796% Loss Rate 38% Win Rate 62% Profit-Loss Ratio 0.94 Alpha -0.027 Beta 0.665 Annual Standard Deviation 0.11 Annual Variance 0.012 Information Ratio -0.592 Tracking Error 0.071 Treynor Ratio 0.004 Total Fees $1068.68 Estimated Strategy Capacity $8200000.00 Lowest Capacity Asset EEMV V0WRDXSSH205 Portfolio Turnover 3.77% Drawdown Recovery 959 |
#region imports
from AlgorithmImports import *
#endregion
from clr import AddReference
AddReference("QuantConnect.Common")
AddReference("QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework")
from QuantConnect import Resolution, Extensions
from QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework.Alphas import *
from QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework.Portfolio import *
from itertools import groupby
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
class EqualWeightingPortfolioConstructionModel(PortfolioConstructionModel):
'''Provides an implementation of IPortfolioConstructionModel that gives equal weighting to all securities.
The target percent holdings of each security is 1/N where N is the number of securities.
For insights of direction InsightDirection.Up, long targets are returned and
for insights of direction InsightDirection.Down, short targets are returned.'''
def __init__(self, rebalance = Resolution.Daily, portfolioBias = PortfolioBias.LongShort):
'''Initialize a new instance of EqualWeightingPortfolioConstructionModel
Args:
rebalance: Rebalancing parameter. If it is a timedelta, date rules or Resolution, it will be converted into a function.
If None will be ignored.
The function returns the next expected rebalance time for a given algorithm UTC DateTime.
The function returns null if unknown, in which case the function will be called again in the
next loop. Returning current time will trigger rebalance.
portfolioBias: Specifies the bias of the portfolio (Short, Long/Short, Long)'''
self.portfolioBias = portfolioBias
# If the argument is an instance of Resolution or Timedelta
# Redefine rebalancingFunc
rebalancingFunc = rebalance
if isinstance(rebalance, int):
rebalance = Extensions.ToTimeSpan(rebalance)
if isinstance(rebalance, timedelta):
rebalancingFunc = lambda dt: dt + rebalance
if rebalancingFunc:
self.SetRebalancingFunc(rebalancingFunc)
def DetermineTargetPercent(self, activeInsights):
'''Will determine the target percent for each insight
Args:
activeInsights: The active insights to generate a target for'''
result = {}
# give equal weighting to each security
count = sum(x.Direction != InsightDirection.Flat and self.RespectPortfolioBias(x) for x in activeInsights)
percent = 0 if count == 0 else 1.0 / count
for insight in activeInsights:
result[insight] = (insight.Direction if self.RespectPortfolioBias(insight) else InsightDirection.Flat) * percent
return result
def RespectPortfolioBias(self, insight):
'''Method that will determine if a given insight respects the portfolio bias
Args:
insight: The insight to create a target for
'''
return self.portfolioBias == PortfolioBias.LongShort or insight.Direction == self.portfolioBias
# Your New Python File#region imports
from AlgorithmImports import *
#endregion
from clr import AddReference
AddReference("QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework")
AddReference("QuantConnect.Indicators")
AddReference("QuantConnect.Common")
from QuantConnect import *
from QuantConnect.Indicators import *
from QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework.Alphas import *
from datetime import timedelta
class HistoricalReturnsAlphaModel(AlphaModel):
'''Uses Historical returns to create insights.'''
def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs):
'''Initializes a new default instance of the HistoricalReturnsAlphaModel class.
Args:
lookback(int): Historical return lookback period
resolution: The resolution of historical data'''
self.lookback = kwargs['lookback'] if 'lookback' in kwargs else 1
self.resolution = kwargs['resolution'] if 'resolution' in kwargs else Resolution.Daily
self.predictionInterval = Time.Multiply(Extensions.ToTimeSpan(self.resolution), self.lookback)
self.symbolDataBySymbol = {}
def Update(self, algorithm, data):
'''Updates this alpha model with the latest data from the algorithm.
This is called each time the algorithm receives data for subscribed securities
Args:
algorithm: The algorithm instance
data: The new data available
Returns:
The new insights generated'''
insights = []
for symbol, symbolData in self.symbolDataBySymbol.items():
if symbolData.CanEmit:
direction = InsightDirection.Flat
magnitude = symbolData.Return
if magnitude > 0: direction = InsightDirection.Up
if magnitude < 0: direction = InsightDirection.Down
insights.append(Insight.Price(symbol, self.predictionInterval, direction, magnitude, None))
return insights
def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, algorithm, changes):
'''Event fired each time the we add/remove securities from the data feed
Args:
algorithm: The algorithm instance that experienced the change in securities
changes: The security additions and removals from the algorithm'''
# clean up data for removed securities
for removed in changes.RemovedSecurities:
symbolData = self.symbolDataBySymbol.pop(removed.Symbol, None)
if symbolData is not None:
symbolData.RemoveConsolidators(algorithm)
# initialize data for added securities
symbols = [ x.Symbol for x in changes.AddedSecurities ]
history = algorithm.History(symbols, self.lookback, self.resolution)
if history.empty: return
tickers = history.index.levels[0]
for ticker in tickers:
symbol = SymbolCache.GetSymbol(ticker)
if symbol not in self.symbolDataBySymbol:
symbolData = SymbolData(symbol, self.lookback)
self.symbolDataBySymbol[symbol] = symbolData
symbolData.RegisterIndicators(algorithm, self.resolution)
symbolData.WarmUpIndicators(history.loc[ticker])
class SymbolData:
'''Contains data specific to a symbol required by this model'''
def __init__(self, symbol, lookback):
self.Symbol = symbol
self.ROC = RateOfChange('{}.ROC({})'.format(symbol, lookback), lookback)
self.Consolidator = None
self.previous = 0
def RegisterIndicators(self, algorithm, resolution):
self.Consolidator = algorithm.ResolveConsolidator(self.Symbol, resolution)
algorithm.RegisterIndicator(self.Symbol, self.ROC, self.Consolidator)
def RemoveConsolidators(self, algorithm):
if self.Consolidator is not None:
algorithm.SubscriptionManager.RemoveConsolidator(self.Symbol, self.Consolidator)
def WarmUpIndicators(self, history):
for tuple in history.itertuples():
self.ROC.Update(tuple.Index, tuple.close)
@property
def Return(self):
return float(self.ROC.Current.Value)
@property
def CanEmit(self):
if self.previous == self.ROC.Samples:
return False
self.previous = self.ROC.Samples
return self.ROC.IsReady
def __str__(self, **kwargs):
return '{}: {:.2%}'.format(self.ROC.Name, (1 + self.Return)**252 - 1)#region imports
from AlgorithmImports import *
#endregion
from clr import AddReference
AddReference("System")
AddReference("QuantConnect.Algorithm")
AddReference("QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework")
AddReference("QuantConnect.Common")
AddReference("QuantConnect.Indicators")
from System import *
from QuantConnect import *
from QuantConnect.Indicators import *
from QuantConnect.Algorithm import *
from QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework import *
from QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework.Portfolio import *
from Portfolio.MinimumVariancePortfolioOptimizer import MinimumVariancePortfolioOptimizer
from datetime import timedelta
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
### <summary>
### Provides an implementation of Mean-Variance portfolio optimization based on modern portfolio theory.
### The default model uses the MinimumVariancePortfolioOptimizer that accepts a 63-row matrix of 1-day returns.
### </summary>
class MeanVarianceOptimizationPortfolioConstructionModel(PortfolioConstructionModel):
def __init__(self,
rebalance = Resolution.Daily,
portfolioBias = PortfolioBias.LongShort,
lookback = 1,
period = 63,
resolution = Resolution.Daily,
targetReturn = 0.02,
optimizer = None):
"""Initialize the model
Args:
rebalance: Rebalancing parameter. If it is a timedelta, date rules or Resolution, it will be converted into a function.
If None will be ignored.
The function returns the next expected rebalance time for a given algorithm UTC DateTime.
The function returns null if unknown, in which case the function will be called again in the
next loop. Returning current time will trigger rebalance.
portfolioBias: Specifies the bias of the portfolio (Short, Long/Short, Long)
lookback(int): Historical return lookback period
period(int): The time interval of history price to calculate the weight
resolution: The resolution of the history price
optimizer(class): Method used to compute the portfolio weights"""
self.lookback = lookback
self.period = period
self.resolution = resolution
self.portfolioBias = portfolioBias
self.sign = lambda x: -1 if x < 0 else (1 if x > 0 else 0)
lower = 0 if portfolioBias == PortfolioBias.Long else -1
upper = 0 if portfolioBias == PortfolioBias.Short else 1
self.optimizer = MinimumVariancePortfolioOptimizer(lower, upper, targetReturn) if optimizer is None else optimizer
self.symbolDataBySymbol = {}
# If the argument is an instance of Resolution or Timedelta
# Redefine rebalancingFunc
rebalancingFunc = rebalance
if isinstance(rebalance, int):
rebalance = Extensions.ToTimeSpan(rebalance)
if isinstance(rebalance, timedelta):
rebalancingFunc = lambda dt: dt + rebalance
if rebalancingFunc:
self.SetRebalancingFunc(rebalancingFunc)
def ShouldCreateTargetForInsight(self, insight):
if len(PortfolioConstructionModel.FilterInvalidInsightMagnitude(self.Algorithm, [insight])) == 0:
return False
symbolData = self.symbolDataBySymbol.get(insight.Symbol)
if insight.Magnitude is None:
self.algorithm.SetRunTimeError(ArgumentNullException('MeanVarianceOptimizationPortfolioConstructionModel does not accept \'None\' as Insight.Magnitude. Please checkout the selected Alpha Model specifications.'))
return False
symbolData.Add(self.Algorithm.Time, insight.Magnitude)
return True
def DetermineTargetPercent(self, activeInsights):
"""
Will determine the target percent for each insight
Args:
Returns:
"""
targets = {}
symbols = [insight.Symbol for insight in activeInsights]
# Create a dictionary keyed by the symbols in the insights with an pandas.Series as value to create a data frame
returns = { str(symbol) : data.Return for symbol, data in self.symbolDataBySymbol.items() if symbol in symbols }
returns = pd.DataFrame(returns)
# The portfolio optimizer finds the optional weights for the given data
weights = self.optimizer.Optimize(returns)
weights = pd.Series(weights, index = returns.columns)
# Create portfolio targets from the specified insights
for insight in activeInsights:
weight = weights[str(insight.Symbol)]
# don't trust the optimizer
if self.portfolioBias != PortfolioBias.LongShort and self.sign(weight) != self.portfolioBias:
weight = 0
targets[insight] = weight
return targets
def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, algorithm, changes):
'''Event fired each time the we add/remove securities from the data feed
Args:
algorithm: The algorithm instance that experienced the change in securities
changes: The security additions and removals from the algorithm'''
# clean up data for removed securities
super().OnSecuritiesChanged(algorithm, changes)
for removed in changes.RemovedSecurities:
symbolData = self.symbolDataBySymbol.pop(removed.Symbol, None)
symbolData.Reset()
# initialize data for added securities
symbols = [ x.Symbol for x in changes.AddedSecurities ]
history = algorithm.History(symbols, self.lookback * self.period, self.resolution)
if history.empty: return
tickers = history.index.levels[0]
for ticker in tickers:
symbol = SymbolCache.GetSymbol(ticker)
if symbol not in self.symbolDataBySymbol:
symbolData = self.MeanVarianceSymbolData(symbol, self.lookback, self.period)
symbolData.WarmUpIndicators(history.loc[ticker])
self.symbolDataBySymbol[symbol] = symbolData
class MeanVarianceSymbolData:
'''Contains data specific to a symbol required by this model'''
def __init__(self, symbol, lookback, period):
self.symbol = symbol
self.roc = RateOfChange(f'{symbol}.ROC({lookback})', lookback)
self.roc.Updated += self.OnRateOfChangeUpdated
self.window = RollingWindow[IndicatorDataPoint](period)
def Reset(self):
self.roc.Updated -= self.OnRateOfChangeUpdated
self.roc.Reset()
self.window.Reset()
def WarmUpIndicators(self, history):
for tuple in history.itertuples():
self.roc.Update(tuple.Index, tuple.close)
def OnRateOfChangeUpdated(self, roc, value):
if roc.IsReady:
self.window.Add(value)
def Add(self, time, value):
item = IndicatorDataPoint(self.symbol, time, value)
self.window.Add(item)
@property
def Return(self):
return pd.Series(
data = [(1 + float(x.Value))**252 - 1 for x in self.window],
index = [x.EndTime for x in self.window])
@property
def IsReady(self):
return self.window.IsReady
def __str__(self, **kwargs):
return '{}: {:.2%}'.format(self.roc.Name, (1 + self.window[0])**252 - 1)#region imports
from AlgorithmImports import *
#endregion
from clr import AddReference
AddReference("QuantConnect.Common")
AddReference("QuantConnect.Algorithm")
AddReference("QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework")
AddReference("QuantConnect.Indicators")
from QuantConnect import *
from QuantConnect.Indicators import *
from QuantConnect.Algorithm import *
from QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework import *
from QuantConnect.Algorithm.Framework.Alphas import *
class EmaCrossAlphaModel(AlphaModel):
'''Alpha model that uses an EMA cross to create insights'''
def __init__(self,
fastPeriod = 12,
slowPeriod = 26,
resolution = Resolution.Daily):
'''Initializes a new instance of the EmaCrossAlphaModel class
Args:
fastPeriod: The fast EMA period
slowPeriod: The slow EMA period'''
self.fastPeriod = fastPeriod
self.slowPeriod = slowPeriod
self.resolution = resolution
self.predictionInterval = Time.Multiply(Extensions.ToTimeSpan(resolution), fastPeriod)
self.symbolDataBySymbol = {}
resolutionString = Extensions.GetEnumString(resolution, Resolution)
self.Name = '{}({},{},{})'.format(self.__class__.__name__, fastPeriod, slowPeriod, resolutionString)
def Update(self, algorithm, data):
'''Updates this alpha model with the latest data from the algorithm.
This is called each time the algorithm receives data for subscribed securities
Args:
algorithm: The algorithm instance
data: The new data available
Returns:
The new insights generated'''
insights = []
for symbol, symbolData in self.symbolDataBySymbol.items():
if symbolData.Fast.IsReady and symbolData.Slow.IsReady:
if symbolData.FastIsOverSlow:
if symbolData.Slow > symbolData.Fast:
insights.append(Insight.Price(symbolData.Symbol, self.predictionInterval, InsightDirection.Down))
elif symbolData.SlowIsOverFast:
if symbolData.Fast > symbolData.Slow:
insights.append(Insight.Price(symbolData.Symbol, self.predictionInterval, InsightDirection.Up))
symbolData.FastIsOverSlow = symbolData.Fast > symbolData.Slow
return insights
def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, algorithm, changes):
'''Event fired each time the we add/remove securities from the data feed
Args:
algorithm: The algorithm instance that experienced the change in securities
changes: The security additions and removals from the algorithm'''
for added in changes.AddedSecurities:
symbolData = self.symbolDataBySymbol.get(added.Symbol)
if symbolData is None:
# create fast/slow EMAs
symbolData = SymbolData(added)
symbolData.Fast = algorithm.EMA(added.Symbol, self.fastPeriod, self.resolution)
symbolData.Slow = algorithm.EMA(added.Symbol, self.slowPeriod, self.resolution)
self.symbolDataBySymbol[added.Symbol] = symbolData
else:
# a security that was already initialized was re-added, reset the indicators
symbolData.Fast.Reset()
symbolData.Slow.Reset()
class SymbolData:
'''Contains data specific to a symbol required by this model'''
def __init__(self, security):
self.Security = security
self.Symbol = security.Symbol
self.Fast = None
self.Slow = None
# True if the fast is above the slow, otherwise false.
# This is used to prevent emitting the same signal repeatedly
self.FastIsOverSlow = False
@property
def SlowIsOverFast(self):
return not self.FastIsOverSlow
# Your New Python File#region imports
from AlgorithmImports import *
#endregion
"""
MEAN-VARIANCE OPTIMIZATION WITH A SIMPLE HISTORICAL-RETURN ALPHA MODEL
This strategy demonstrates the QuantConnect Algorithm Framework using a simple
but non-trivial alpha model and a mean-variance portfolio construction model.
The framework structure is:
1. Universe Selection:
The strategy uses a manual ETF universe focused on equity factor ETFs and SPY.
The universe includes minimum volatility, dividend growth, quality, dividend
yield, momentum, value, international minimum volatility, international dividend,
international quality, and broad U.S. equity exposure through SPY.
2. Alpha Model:
The alpha model ranks each ETF using recent historical returns. Once per month,
it calculates the return over a configurable lookback window. If the return is
positive, the model emits an Up insight. If the return is negative or zero, no
long insight is emitted. This keeps the alpha model simple and pedagogical while
still being more meaningful than a constant alpha.
3. Portfolio Construction:
The MeanVarianceOptimizationPortfolioConstructionModel receives the active
insights and uses historical return and covariance estimates to create portfolio
weights. The model is set to long-only through PortfolioBias.LONG.
4. Execution:
The ImmediateExecutionModel submits orders as soon as portfolio targets are
generated.
5. Benchmark:
The benchmark is SPY buy-and-hold, plotted against the strategy equity curve.
The model is intentionally simple and suitable as an introduction to mean-variance
optimization in the QC Framework.
"""
class MonthlyHistoricalReturnsAlphaModel(AlphaModel):
def __init__(
self,
lookback_days=20,
insight_duration_days=35,
minimum_return=0.0
):
self.lookback_days = lookback_days
self.insight_duration = timedelta(days=insight_duration_days)
self.minimum_return = minimum_return
self.symbols = []
self.last_emit_month = None
def Update(self, algorithm, data):
insights = []
if algorithm.IsWarmingUp:
return insights
current_month = (algorithm.Time.year, algorithm.Time.month)
# Emit insights only once per month.
if self.last_emit_month == current_month:
return insights
for symbol in self.symbols:
if not algorithm.Securities.ContainsKey(symbol):
continue
security = algorithm.Securities[symbol]
if not security.HasData:
continue
history = algorithm.History(
symbol,
self.lookback_days + 1,
Resolution.Daily
)
if history.empty:
continue
closes = history["close"]
if len(closes) < self.lookback_days:
continue
start_price = closes.iloc[0]
end_price = closes.iloc[-1]
if start_price <= 0:
continue
historical_return = (
end_price / start_price
- 1
)
# Only positive-return ETFs receive long insights.
if historical_return <= self.minimum_return:
continue
# Magnitude must be non-null for optimization models.
magnitude = min(abs(historical_return), 0.10)
confidence = 1.0
insights.append(
Insight.Price(
symbol,
self.insight_duration,
InsightDirection.Up,
magnitude,
confidence
)
)
self.last_emit_month = current_month
algorithm.Debug(
"Monthly historical-return alpha emitted "
+ str(len(insights))
+ " insights on "
+ str(algorithm.Time.date())
)
algorithm.Plot(
"Alpha Diagnostics",
"Active Insights",
len(insights)
)
return insights
def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, algorithm, changes):
for security in changes.AddedSecurities:
if security.Symbol not in self.symbols:
self.symbols.append(security.Symbol)
for security in changes.RemovedSecurities:
if security.Symbol in self.symbols:
self.symbols.remove(security.Symbol)
class MeanVarianceOptimizationAlgorithm(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 1. BACKTEST SETTINGS
# ------------------------------------------------------------
self.SetStartDate(2022, 1, 1)
self.SetEndDate(2026, 5, 5)
self.initial_cash = 100000
self.SetCash(self.initial_cash)
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 2. UNIVERSE SELECTION
# ------------------------------------------------------------
self.UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Daily
tickers = [
# Factor ETFs
"USMV",
"DGRO",
"QUAL",
"DVY",
"MTUM",
"VLUE",
"EFAV",
"EEMV",
"IDV",
"IQLT",
# Market benchmark / broad market exposure
"SPY"
]
symbols = [
Symbol.Create(ticker, SecurityType.Equity, Market.USA)
for ticker in tickers
]
self.SetUniverseSelection(
ManualUniverseSelectionModel(symbols)
)
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 3. WARMUP
# ------------------------------------------------------------
self.SetWarmUp(60, Resolution.Daily)
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 4. ALPHA MODEL
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# Monthly historical-return alpha.
# ETFs with positive 20-day returns receive Up insights.
self.AddAlpha(
MonthlyHistoricalReturnsAlphaModel(
lookback_days=20,
insight_duration_days=35,
minimum_return=0.0
)
)
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 5. PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION MODEL
# ------------------------------------------------------------
self.SetPortfolioConstruction(
MeanVarianceOptimizationPortfolioConstructionModel(
resolution=Resolution.Daily,
period=60,
portfolio_bias=PortfolioBias.LONG,
target_return=0.03
)
)
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 6. EXECUTION MODEL
# ------------------------------------------------------------
self.SetExecution(
ImmediateExecutionModel()
)
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 7. BENCHMARK
# ------------------------------------------------------------
self._benchmark = self.AddEquity(
"SPY",
Resolution.Daily,
Market.USA
).Symbol
self.SetBenchmark(self._benchmark)
self.initial_benchmark_price = None
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 8. DIAGNOSTIC STATE VARIABLES
# ------------------------------------------------------------
self.strategy_peak = self.initial_cash
self.benchmark_peak = self.initial_cash
def OnData(self, data):
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 1. CHECK BENCHMARK DATA
# ------------------------------------------------------------
if self._benchmark not in data or data[self._benchmark] is None:
return
benchmark_price = self.Securities[self._benchmark].Price
if benchmark_price <= 0:
return
if self.initial_benchmark_price is None:
self.initial_benchmark_price = benchmark_price
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 2. BENCHMARK VALUE
# ------------------------------------------------------------
benchmark_value = (
self.initial_cash
* benchmark_price
/ self.initial_benchmark_price
)
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 3. PLOT STRATEGY VS BENCHMARK
# ------------------------------------------------------------
self.Plot(
"Strategy Equity",
"Portfolio Value",
self.Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue
)
self.Plot(
"Strategy Equity",
"Buy Hold SPY",
benchmark_value
)
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 4. PORTFOLIO STATE
# ------------------------------------------------------------
invested_value = 0
active_holdings = 0
for holding in self.Portfolio.Values:
if holding.Invested:
invested_value += abs(holding.HoldingsValue)
active_holdings += 1
if self.Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue > 0:
invested_weight = (
invested_value
/ self.Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue
)
cash_weight = 1 - invested_weight
self.Plot(
"Portfolio State",
"Invested Weight",
invested_weight
)
self.Plot(
"Portfolio State",
"Cash Weight",
cash_weight
)
self.Plot(
"Portfolio Diagnostics",
"Active Holdings",
active_holdings
)
# ------------------------------------------------------------
# 5. DRAWDOWN DIAGNOSTICS
# ------------------------------------------------------------
self.strategy_peak = max(
self.strategy_peak,
self.Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue
)
self.benchmark_peak = max(
self.benchmark_peak,
benchmark_value
)
strategy_drawdown = (
self.Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue
/ self.strategy_peak
- 1
)
benchmark_drawdown = (
benchmark_value
/ self.benchmark_peak
- 1
)
self.Plot(
"Drawdown",
"Strategy Drawdown",
strategy_drawdown
)
self.Plot(
"Drawdown",
"Benchmark Drawdown",
benchmark_drawdown
)