| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Trades 442 Average Win 0.99% Average Loss -0.66% Compounding Annual Return 40.756% Drawdown 37.000% Expectancy 0.564 Net Profit 106.845% Sharpe Ratio 1.114 Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio 47.707% Loss Rate 37% Win Rate 63% Profit-Loss Ratio 1.50 Alpha 0 Beta 0 Annual Standard Deviation 0.287 Annual Variance 0.082 Information Ratio 1.114 Tracking Error 0.287 Treynor Ratio 0 Total Fees $557.52 Estimated Strategy Capacity $10000000.00 Lowest Capacity Asset SHY SGNKIKYGE9NP |
'''
Intersection of ROC comparison using OUT_DAY approach by Vladimir v1.3
(with dynamic selector for fundamental factors and momentum)
inspired by Peter Guenther, Tentor Testivis, Dan Whitnable, Thomas Chang, Miko M, Leandro Maia
Leandro Maia setup modified by Vladimir
https://www.quantconnect.com/forum/discussion/9632/amazing-returns-superior-stock-selection-strategy-superior-in-amp-out-strategy/p2/comment-29437
https://www.quantconnect.com/forum/discussion/10246/intersection-of-roc-comparison-using-out-day-approach/p1
BONDS = symbols('TMF') if data.can_trade(symbol('TMF')) else symbols('TLT')
This can be modified to use for futures
'''
from QuantConnect.Data.UniverseSelection import *
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BONDS = ['TLT','GLD','SHY']; VOLA = 126; BASE_RET = 85; STK_MOM = 126; N_COARSE = 100; N_FACTOR = 20; N_MOM = 5; LEV = .98;
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
class Fundamental_Factors_Momentum_ROC_Comparison_OUT_DAY(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
# LIVE TRADING
if self.LiveMode:
self.Debug("Trading Live!")
self.SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.InteractiveBrokersBrokerage, AccountType.Margin)
# Group Trading
# Use a default FA Account Group with an Allocation Method
self.DefaultOrderProperties = InteractiveBrokersOrderProperties()
# account group created manually in IB/TWS
self.DefaultOrderProperties.FaGroup = "TE1x"
# supported allocation methods are: EqualQuantity, NetLiq, AvailableEquity, PctChange
self.DefaultOrderProperties.FaMethod = "AvailableEquity"
# set a default FA Allocation Profile
# Alex: I commented the following line out, since it would "reset" the previous settings
#self.DefaultOrderProperties = InteractiveBrokersOrderProperties()
# allocation profile created manually in IB/TWS
# self.DefaultOrderProperties.FaProfile = "TestProfileP"
#Algo Start
self.SetStartDate(2020, 1, 1)
#self.SetEndDate(2010, 12, 31)
self.InitCash = 100000
self.SetCash(self.InitCash)
self.MKT = self.AddEquity("SPY", Resolution.Hour).Symbol
self.mkt = []
self.SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.InteractiveBrokersBrokerage, AccountType.Margin)
res = Resolution.Hour
self.BONDS = [self.AddEquity(ticker, res).Symbol for ticker in BONDS]
self.INI_WAIT_DAYS = 5
self.wait_days = self.INI_WAIT_DAYS
self.GLD = self.AddEquity('GLD', res).Symbol
self.SLV = self.AddEquity('SLV', res).Symbol
self.XLU = self.AddEquity('XLU', res).Symbol
self.XLI = self.AddEquity('XLI', res).Symbol
self.UUP = self.AddEquity('UUP', res).Symbol
self.DBB = self.AddEquity('DBB', res).Symbol
self.pairs = [self.GLD, self.SLV, self.XLU, self.XLI, self.UUP, self.DBB]
self.bull = 1
self.bull_prior = 0
self.count = 0
self.outday = (-self.INI_WAIT_DAYS+1)
self.SetWarmUp(timedelta(350))
self.UniverseSettings.Resolution = res
self.AddUniverse(self.CoarseFilter, self.FineFilter)
self.data = {}
self.RebalanceFreq = 60
self.UpdateFineFilter = 0
self.symbols = None
self.RebalanceCount = 0
self.wt = {}
self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.EveryDay(), self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen('SPY', 120),
self.daily_check)
symbols = [self.MKT] + self.pairs
for symbol in symbols:
self.consolidator = TradeBarConsolidator(timedelta(days=1))
self.consolidator.DataConsolidated += self.consolidation_handler
self.SubscriptionManager.AddConsolidator(symbol, self.consolidator)
self.history = self.History(symbols, VOLA, Resolution.Daily)
if self.history.empty or 'close' not in self.history.columns:
return
self.history = self.history['close'].unstack(level=0).dropna()
def consolidation_handler(self, sender, consolidated):
self.history.loc[consolidated.EndTime, consolidated.Symbol] = consolidated.Close
self.history = self.history.iloc[-VOLA:]
def derive_vola_waitdays(self):
sigma = 0.6 * np.log1p(self.history[[self.MKT]].pct_change()).std() * np.sqrt(252)
wait_days = int(sigma * BASE_RET)
period = int((1.0 - sigma) * BASE_RET)
return wait_days, period
def CoarseFilter(self, coarse):
if not (((self.count-self.RebalanceCount) == self.RebalanceFreq) or (self.count == self.outday + self.wait_days - 1)):
self.UpdateFineFilter = 0
return Universe.Unchanged
self.UpdateFineFilter = 1
selected = [x for x in coarse if (x.HasFundamentalData) and (float(x.Price) > 5)]
filtered = sorted(selected, key=lambda x: x.DollarVolume, reverse=True)
return [x.Symbol for x in filtered[:N_COARSE]]
def FineFilter(self, fundamental):
if self.UpdateFineFilter == 0:
return Universe.Unchanged
filtered_fundamental = [x for x in fundamental if (x.ValuationRatios.EVToEBITDA > 0)
and (x.EarningReports.BasicAverageShares.ThreeMonths > 0)
and float(x.EarningReports.BasicAverageShares.ThreeMonths) * x.Price > 10e9
and x.SecurityReference.IsPrimaryShare
and x.SecurityReference.SecurityType == "ST00000001"
and x.SecurityReference.IsDepositaryReceipt == 0
and x.CompanyReference.IsLimitedPartnership == 0]
top = sorted(filtered_fundamental, key = lambda x: x.ValuationRatios.EVToEBITDA, reverse=True)[:N_FACTOR]
self.symbols = [x.Symbol for x in top]
self.UpdateFineFilter = 0
self.RebalanceCount = self.count
return self.symbols
def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, changes):
addedSymbols = []
for security in changes.AddedSecurities:
addedSymbols.append(security.Symbol)
if security.Symbol not in self.data:
self.data[security.Symbol] = SymbolData(security.Symbol, STK_MOM, self)
if len(addedSymbols) > 0:
history = self.History(addedSymbols, 1 + STK_MOM, Resolution.Daily).loc[addedSymbols]
for symbol in addedSymbols:
try:
self.data[symbol].Warmup(history.loc[symbol])
except:
self.Debug(str(symbol))
continue
def daily_check(self):
self.wait_days, period = self.derive_vola_waitdays()
r = self.history.pct_change(period).iloc[-1]
bear = ((r[self.SLV] < r[self.GLD]) and (r[self.XLI] < r[self.XLU]) and (r[self.DBB] < r[self.UUP]))
if bear:
self.bull = False
self.outday = self.count
if (self.count >= self.outday + self.wait_days):
self.bull = True
self.wt_stk = LEV if self.bull else 0
self.wt_bnd = 0 if self.bull else LEV
if bear:
self.trade_out()
if (self.bull and not self.bull_prior) or (self.bull and (self.count==self.RebalanceCount)):
self.trade_in()
self.bull_prior = self.bull
self.count += 1
def trade_out(self):
for sec in self.BONDS:
self.wt[sec] = self.wt_bnd/len(self.BONDS)
for sec in self.Portfolio.Keys:
if sec not in self.BONDS:
self.wt[sec] = 0
for sec, weight in self.wt.items():
if weight == 0 and self.Portfolio[sec].IsLong:
self.Liquidate(sec)
for sec, weight in self.wt.items():
if weight != 0:
self.SetHoldings(sec, weight)
def trade_in(self):
if self.symbols is None: return
output = self.calc_return(self.symbols)
stocks = output.iloc[:N_MOM].index
for sec in self.Portfolio.Keys:
if sec not in stocks:
self.wt[sec] = 0
for sec in stocks:
self.wt[sec] = self.wt_stk/N_MOM
for sec, weight in self.wt.items():
self.SetHoldings(sec, weight)
def calc_return(self, stocks):
ret = {}
for symbol in stocks:
try:
ret[symbol] = self.data[symbol].Roc.Current.Value
except:
self.Debug(str(symbol))
continue
df_ret = pd.DataFrame.from_dict(ret, orient='index')
df_ret.columns = ['return']
sort_return = df_ret.sort_values(by = ['return'], ascending = False)
return sort_return
def OnEndOfDay(self):
mkt_price = self.Securities[self.MKT].Close
self.mkt.append(mkt_price)
mkt_perf = self.InitCash * self.mkt[-1] / self.mkt[0]
self.Plot('Strategy Equity', self.MKT, mkt_perf)
account_leverage = self.Portfolio.TotalHoldingsValue / self.Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue
self.Plot('Holdings', 'leverage', round(account_leverage, 2))
self.Plot('Holdings', 'Target Leverage', LEV)
class SymbolData(object):
def __init__(self, symbol, roc, algorithm):
self.Symbol = symbol
self.Roc = RateOfChange(roc)
self.algorithm = algorithm
self.consolidator = algorithm.ResolveConsolidator(symbol, Resolution.Daily)
algorithm.RegisterIndicator(symbol, self.Roc, self.consolidator)
def Warmup(self, history):
for index, row in history.iterrows():
self.Roc.Update(index, row['close'])