| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Trades 66 Average Win 0.76% Average Loss -1.04% Compounding Annual Return -51.820% Drawdown 13.800% Expectancy 0.118 Net Profit -5.033% Sharpe Ratio -1.323 Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio 21.041% Loss Rate 35% Win Rate 65% Profit-Loss Ratio 0.73 Alpha 0.059 Beta -0.486 Annual Standard Deviation 0.358 Annual Variance 0.128 Information Ratio -3.541 Tracking Error 0.443 Treynor Ratio 0.975 Total Fees $0.00 |
import clr
clr.AddReference("System")
clr.AddReference("QuantConnect.Algorithm")
clr.AddReference("QuantConnect.Common")
from System import *
from QuantConnect import *
from QuantConnect.Algorithm import *
import numpy as np
import torch
import torch.nn.functional as F
class PytorchNeuralNetworkAlgorithm(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
self.SetStartDate(2020, 5, 7) # Set Start Date
#self.SetEndDate(2020, 10, 8) # Set End Date
#self.SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.OandaBrokerage)
self.SetCash(1000000) # Set Strategy Cash
# add symbol
spy = self.AddForex("EURUSD", Resolution.Minute, Market.Oanda)
spy1 = self.AddForex("USDCHF", Resolution.Minute, Market.Oanda)
gug = self.AddForex("GBPUSD", Resolution.Minute, Market.Oanda)
spy2 = self.AddForex("EURGBP", Resolution.Minute, Market.Oanda)
#spy3 = self.AddForex("AUDUSD", Resolution.Minute, Market.Oanda)
#spy4 = self.AddForex("EURAUD", Resolution.Minute, Market.Oanda)
#spy5 = self.AddForex("AUDCHF", Resolution.Minute, Market.Oanda)
#spy6 = self.AddForex("USDJPY", Resolution.Minute, Market.Oanda)
#spy7 = self.AddForex("GBPJPY", Resolution.Minute, Market.Oanda)
#spy8 = self.AddForex("AUDJPY", Resolution.Minute, Market.Oanda)
#spy9 = self.AddForex("GBPAUD", Resolution.Minute, Market.Oanda)
self.symbols = [spy.Symbol, spy1.Symbol, gug.Symbol, spy2.Symbol]#, spy3.Symbol, spy4.Symbol, spy5.Symbol, spy6.Symbol, spy7.Symbol, spy8.Symbol, spy9.Symbol]# using a list can extend to condition for multiple symbols# ,
self.lookback = 1440 # days of historical data (look back)
self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Monday, DayOfWeek.Tuesday, DayOfWeek.Wednesday, DayOfWeek.Thursday, DayOfWeek.Friday), self.TimeRules.Every(timedelta(minutes=480)), self.NetTrain) # train the NNself.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen("EURUSD", 175), self.NetTrain)
self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Monday, DayOfWeek.Tuesday, DayOfWeek.Wednesday, DayOfWeek.Thursday, DayOfWeek.Friday), self.TimeRules.Every(timedelta(minutes=480)), self.Trade)# self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen("EURUSD", 179), self.Trade)
self.SetWarmUp(self.lookback)
stockPlot1 = Chart("Trade Plot")
stockPlot1.AddSeries(Series("guess", SeriesType.Line, 0))
stockPlot1.AddSeries(Series("actual", SeriesType.Line, 0))
#stockPlot1.AddSeries(Series("rsiusd", SeriesType.Line, 0))
#stockPlot1.AddSeries(Series("liquidate", SeriesType.Line, 0))
#stockPlot1.AddSeries(Series("rsijpy", SeriesType.Line, 0))
#stockPlot1.AddSeries(Series("rsijpy1", SeriesType.Line, 0))
#stockPlot1.AddSeries(Series("rsijpy4", SeriesType.Line, 0))
self.AddChart(stockPlot1)
def Ondata(self, data):
if self.IsWarmingUp: return
def NetTrain(self):
# Daily historical data is used to train the machine learning model
history = self.History(self.symbols, self.lookback + 1, Resolution.Minute)
# dicts that store prices for training
self.prices_x = {}
self.prices_y = {}
# dicts that store prices for sell and buy
self.sell_prices = {}
self.buy_prices = {}
for symbol in self.symbols:
if not history.empty:
# x: preditors; y: response
self.prices_x[symbol] = list(history.loc[symbol.Value]['open'])[:-1]
self.prices_y[symbol] = list(history.loc[symbol.Value]['open'])[1:]
for symbol in self.symbols:
# if this symbol has historical data
if symbol in self.prices_x:
net = Net(n_feature=1, n_hidden=10, n_output=1) # define the network
optimizer = torch.optim.SGD(net.parameters(), lr=0.2)
loss_func = torch.nn.MSELoss() # this is for regression mean squared loss
for t in range(200):
# Get data and do preprocessing
x = torch.from_numpy(np.array(self.prices_x[symbol])).float()
y = torch.from_numpy(np.array(self.prices_y[symbol])).float()
# unsqueeze data (see pytorch doc for details)
x = x.unsqueeze(1)
y = y.unsqueeze(1)
prediction = net(x) # input x and predict based on x
loss = loss_func(prediction, y) # must be (1. nn output, 2. target)
optimizer.zero_grad() # clear gradients for next train
loss.backward() # backpropagation, compute gradients
optimizer.step() # apply gradients
# Follow the trend
self.buy_prices[symbol] = net(y)[-1] + np.std(y.data.numpy())
self.sell_prices[symbol] = net(y)[-1] - np.std(y.data.numpy())
def Trade(self):
'''
Enter or exit positions based on relationship of the open price of the current bar and the prices defined by the machine learning model.
Liquidate if the open price is below the sell price and buy if the open price is above the buy price
'''
for holding in self.Portfolio.Values:
if self.CurrentSlice[holding.Symbol].Open < self.sell_prices[holding.Symbol] and not holding.Invested:
self.Plot("Trade Plot", "guess", self.sell_prices[holding.Symbol])
self.SetHoldings(holding.Symbol, 10 / len(self.symbols))
elif self.CurrentSlice[holding.Symbol].Open > self.buy_prices[holding.Symbol] and not holding.Invested:
self.SetHoldings(holding.Symbol, -10 / len(self.symbols))
elif holding.Invested:
if self.CurrentSlice[holding.Symbol].Open < self.sell_prices[holding.Symbol] and holding.IsShort:
self.Liquidate(holding.Symbol)
if self.CurrentSlice[holding.Symbol].Open > self.buy_prices[holding.Symbol] and holding.IsLong:
self.Liquidate(holding.Symbol)
self.Plot("Trade Plot", "actual", self.CurrentSlice["EURUSD"].Open)
# class for Pytorch NN model
class Net(torch.nn.Module):
def __init__(self, n_feature, n_hidden, n_output):
super(Net, self).__init__()
self.hidden = torch.nn.Linear(n_feature, n_hidden) # hidden layer
self.predict = torch.nn.Linear(n_hidden, n_output) # output layer
def forward(self, x):
x = F.relu(self.hidden(x)) # activation function for hidden layer
x = self.predict(x) # linear output
return x