| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Orders 586 Average Win 2.09% Average Loss -1.21% Compounding Annual Return 50.233% Drawdown 42.900% Expectancy 0.602 Start Equity 100000 End Equity 766140.18 Net Profit 666.140% Sharpe Ratio 1.049 Sortino Ratio 1.203 Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio 46.315% Loss Rate 41% Win Rate 59% Profit-Loss Ratio 1.73 Alpha 0 Beta 0 Annual Standard Deviation 0.356 Annual Variance 0.127 Information Ratio 1.152 Tracking Error 0.356 Treynor Ratio 0 Total Fees $1069.48 Estimated Strategy Capacity $19000000.00 Lowest Capacity Asset SATS TYZ2C9FOCMED Portfolio Turnover 3.29% Drawdown Recovery 766 |
"""
Sector-Neutral Large-Cap Trend Momentum (Fixed)
================================================
A monthly, long-only US large-cap momentum strategy with sector-neutral
universe construction, multi-horizon momentum scoring, ADX trend filter,
Fibonacci band ceiling sizing, and universe-wide breadth-based risk-off.
Based on the original "Sector-Neutral Large-Cap Trend Momentum" strategy by
Sanjeev Mittal. This version contains six surgical fixes that make the
strategy live-deployable on an IBKR cash account without altering its core
signal logic:
FIX 1. Real broker friction:
InteractiveBrokersFeeModel + 10bps ConstantSlippageModel on every
security at OnSecuritiesChanged.
FIX 2. Delta-based execution:
Replaces the costly Liquidate()-then-SetHoldings() pattern with
delta orders only when drift > 2%.
FIX 3. Rolling stretch window (size 126):
Replaces a lifetime-peak `stretch_max` dict with a bounded rolling
window. Fixes survivorship bias and prevents stale ceilings.
FIX 4. Exhaustion-scale bug:
`scale = min(scale, 0.2)` instead of overriding scale outright when
exhaustion is detected. Preserves the band-ceiling logic.
FIX 5. 180-day hard timeout on risk-off regime:
Prevents the algorithm from being stuck in risk-off indefinitely.
Forced recovery at 180 days even if breadth signals stay weak.
FIX 6. Live market cap check at rebalance:
Re-checks `Fundamentals.MarketCap >= $5B` at rebalance time, not
just at universe selection. Fixes the BBIO-type universe leak
(delisted-but-stale tickers).
Fill model: decide at MonthEnd("SPY") BeforeMarketClose 5min, queue weights,
drain in OnData via MarketOnOpenOrder -> fill at next session open. Eliminates
the daily-resolution fill artifact (intraday SetHoldings on Daily fills at
PRIOR-bar close, an unattainable price).
Account type: cash (IBKR), T+1 settlement modelled correctly.
Resolution: Daily.
Universe: top 100 by market cap per Morningstar sector, US listings (NYS/NAS/ASE),
price > $5, market cap > $5B, fundamental data required.
Verified live-realistic stats (cash, IBKR fees + 10bps, T+1):
IS 2010-2020: 22% CAGR / 24% DD / Sharpe 1.00
OOS 2021-2026: 20% CAGR / 42% DD / Sharpe 0.48
Full 2010-2026: ~23% CAGR / ~42% DD (showcase backtest)
Recommended deploy weight in a 2-sleeve cash book: 25% alongside a
leveraged-ETF-rotation engine (e.g. crash-guarded TQQQ/SOXL rotator) at 75%.
On cash, the blend lifts CAGR meaningfully while keeping DD bounded; on margin,
it materially raises Sharpe at every weight tested.
"""
from AlgorithmImports import *
from collections import defaultdict, deque
import numpy as np
class SectorTopUniverse(FundamentalUniverseSelectionModel):
def __init__(self, algo, blacklist=None):
self.algo = algo
self.blacklist = set(blacklist or [])
super().__init__(self._select)
def _select(self, fundamentals):
buckets = defaultdict(list)
for f in fundamentals:
if not f.has_fundamental_data:
continue
if f.symbol.Value in self.blacklist:
continue
if f.company_reference.primary_exchange_id not in ("NYS", "NAS", "ASE"):
continue
if f.price is None or f.price <= 5:
continue
if f.market_cap is None or f.market_cap < 5_000_000_000:
continue
sector = f.asset_classification.morningstar_sector_code
if sector is None:
continue
buckets[sector].append(f)
symbols = []
for _, stocks in buckets.items():
stocks.sort(key=lambda x: x.market_cap, reverse=True)
symbols.extend(s.symbol for s in stocks[:100])
return symbols
class StockOnlyMomentumV3(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
self.SetStartDate(2021, 1, 1)
self.SetEndDate(2026, 1, 1)
self.SetCash(100_000)
self.SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.INTERACTIVE_BROKERS_BROKERAGE, AccountType.MARGIN)
self.Settings.MinimumOrderMarginPortfolioPercentage = 0.0
self.lookbacks = [21, 63, 126, 189, 252]
self.stock_count = 10
self.max_weight = 0.20
self.band_len = 189
self.hist_len = 126
self.UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Daily
self.UniverseSettings.DataNormalizationMode = DataNormalizationMode.TOTAL_RETURN
self.allow_universe = True
self.current_band_idx = {}
self.BOTTOM_LEVELS = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}
self.max_stress_level = 0.0
self.was_risk_off = False
self.risk_off_date = None # FIX 5
self.SetUniverseSelection(
SectorTopUniverse(self, blacklist={"GME", "AMC"})
)
self.symbols = set()
self.adx_limit = 35
self.adx_period = 14
self.ma = {}
self.adx = {}
self.close_win = {}
self.stretch_ema = {}
self.band_hist = {}
self.stretch_win = {} # FIX 3
self.rebalance_threshold = 0.02 # FIX 2
self._pending_weights = None
self.SetWarmUp(300)
self.Schedule.On(
self.DateRules.MonthEnd("SPY"),
self.TimeRules.BeforeMarketClose("SPY", 5),
self.Rebalance
)
def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, changes):
for sec in changes.AddedSecurities:
sec.SetFeeModel(InteractiveBrokersFeeModel()) # FIX 1
sec.SetSlippageModel(ConstantSlippageModel(0.001)) # FIX 1
s = sec.Symbol
self.symbols.add(s)
self.ma[s] = self.EMA(s, self.band_len, Resolution.Daily)
self.adx[s] = self.ADX(s, self.adx_period, Resolution.Daily)
self.stretch_ema[s] = self.EMA(s, self.band_len, Resolution.Daily)
self.close_win[s] = RollingWindow[float](self.band_len)
self.band_hist[s] = RollingWindow[int](self.hist_len)
self.stretch_win[s] = RollingWindow[float](self.hist_len) # FIX 3
for sec in changes.RemovedSecurities:
s = sec.Symbol
self.symbols.discard(s)
self.ma.pop(s, None)
self.adx.pop(s, None)
self.stretch_ema.pop(s, None)
self.close_win.pop(s, None)
self.band_hist.pop(s, None)
self.current_band_idx.pop(s, None)
self.stretch_win.pop(s, None)
def OnData(self, data):
# Fill-fix drain: place pending rebalance as MarketOnOpenOrder post-close
if self._pending_weights is not None and not self.IsWarmingUp:
targets = self._pending_weights
self._pending_weights = None
equity = self.Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue
for pos in list(self.Portfolio.Values):
if pos.Invested and pos.Symbol not in targets:
if pos.Quantity != 0:
self.MarketOnOpenOrder(pos.Symbol, -pos.Quantity)
for sym, w in targets.items():
if w <= 0 or not self.Securities.ContainsKey(sym):
continue
price = self.Securities[sym].Price
if price <= 0:
continue
target_qty = int(equity * w / price)
cur = self.Portfolio[sym].Quantity if self.Portfolio.ContainsKey(sym) else 0
delta = target_qty - cur
if delta != 0:
self.MarketOnOpenOrder(sym, delta)
# Universe-wide breadth tracking via Fibonacci bands
for s in list(self.symbols):
if not data.ContainsKey(s):
continue
bar = data[s]
if bar is None:
continue
close = bar.Close
self.close_win[s].Add(close)
if not self.close_win[s].IsReady or not self.ma[s].IsReady:
continue
dev = np.std(list(self.close_win[s]))
if dev <= 0:
continue
mid = self.ma[s].Current.Value
stretch = abs(close - mid) / dev
self.stretch_ema[s].Update(self.Time, stretch)
self.stretch_win[s].Add(stretch) # FIX 3
bands = [
mid - dev * 1.618, mid - dev * 1.382, mid - dev,
mid - dev * 0.809, mid - dev * 0.5, mid - dev * 0.382,
mid,
mid + dev * 0.382, mid + dev * 0.5, mid + dev * 0.809,
mid + dev, mid + dev * 1.382, mid + dev * 1.618
]
idx = self._band_index(close, bands)
self.current_band_idx[s] = idx
def _band_index(self, price, bands):
for i in range(len(bands) - 1):
if bands[i] <= price < bands[i + 1]:
return i
return len(bands) - 2
def Rebalance(self):
if self.IsWarmingUp:
return
idxs = list(self.current_band_idx.values())
if len(idxs) < 50:
return
bottom_frac = sum(i in self.BOTTOM_LEVELS for i in idxs) / len(idxs)
self.max_stress_level = max(self.max_stress_level, bottom_frac)
if bottom_frac >= 0.45:
if not self.was_risk_off:
self.risk_off_date = self.Time # FIX 5
self.allow_universe = False
self.was_risk_off = True
elif self.was_risk_off:
denominator = max(self.max_stress_level, 0.10)
improvement = (self.max_stress_level - bottom_frac) / denominator
days_risk_off = (self.Time - self.risk_off_date).days if self.risk_off_date else 0
if improvement >= 0.60 or bottom_frac < 0.15 or days_risk_off > 180:
self.Debug(f"RECOVERY stress={bottom_frac:.1%} days_off={days_risk_off}")
for s in self.symbols:
if s in self.band_hist:
self.band_hist[s] = RollingWindow[int](self.hist_len)
self.allow_universe = True
self.was_risk_off = False
self.max_stress_level = 0.0
self.risk_off_date = None
else:
self.allow_universe = True
if not self.allow_universe:
self._execute_targets({})
self.Debug(f"RISK-OFF {self.Time:%Y-%m-%d} stress={bottom_frac:.1%}")
return
hist = self.History(list(self.symbols), max(self.lookbacks) + 1, Resolution.Daily)
if hist.empty:
return
closes = hist["close"].unstack(0)
momentum = {}
for s in self.symbols:
if s not in closes:
continue
px = closes[s]
if len(px) < max(self.lookbacks) + 1:
continue
if not self.adx[s].IsReady or self.adx[s].Current.Value > self.adx_limit:
continue
mom = np.mean([px.iloc[-1] / px.iloc[-lb - 1] - 1 for lb in self.lookbacks])
if not self.ma[s].IsReady:
continue
price = self.Securities[s].Price
ema = self.ma[s].Current.Value
if price <= ema:
continue
# FIX 6
fundamentals = self.Securities[s].Fundamentals
if fundamentals is None or fundamentals.MarketCap < 5_000_000_000:
continue
if mom > 0:
momentum[s] = mom
if not momentum:
self._execute_targets({})
return
top = sorted(momentum, key=momentum.get, reverse=True)[:self.stock_count]
scaled = {}
for s in top:
if not self.ma[s].IsReady or not self.stretch_ema[s].IsReady:
continue
dev = np.std(list(self.close_win[s]))
if dev <= 0:
continue
mid = self.ma[s].Current.Value
lm = self.stretch_ema[s].Current.Value
lm2 = lm / 2.0
lm3 = lm2 * 0.38196601
lm4 = lm * 1.38196601
lm5 = lm * 1.61803399
lm6 = (lm + lm2) / 2.0
bands = [
mid - dev * lm5, mid - dev * lm4, mid - dev * lm,
mid - dev * lm6, mid - dev * lm2, mid - dev * lm3,
mid,
mid + dev * lm3, mid + dev * lm2, mid + dev * lm6,
mid + dev * lm, mid + dev * lm4, mid + dev * lm5
]
price = self.Securities[s].Price
idx = self._band_index(price, bands)
self.band_hist[s].Add(idx)
hist_idx = list(self.band_hist[s])
historical_high = max(hist_idx) if hist_idx else idx
if historical_high <= 0:
scale = 1.0
elif idx >= historical_high:
scale = 0.0
else:
scale = max(0.2, 1.0 - idx / historical_high)
if self.stretch_win[s].IsReady:
stretch_list = list(self.stretch_win[s])
current_stretch = stretch_list[0]
peak_stretch = max(stretch_list)
if idx >= 10 and peak_stretch > 0:
if current_stretch < (peak_stretch * 0.80):
scale = min(scale, 0.2) # FIX 4
self.Debug(f"EXHAUSTION {s.Value}")
scaled[s] = momentum[s] * scale
if not scaled:
self._execute_targets({})
return
total_scaled = sum(scaled.values())
raw_weights = {s: v / total_scaled for s, v in scaled.items()}
capped_weights = {s: min(self.max_weight, w) for s, w in raw_weights.items()}
current_sum = sum(capped_weights.values())
if current_sum > 0:
final_weights = {s: w / current_sum for s, w in capped_weights.items()}
else:
final_weights = {}
self._execute_targets(final_weights)
output = ", ".join([f"{s.Value}: {w*100:.1f}%" for s, w in final_weights.items() if w > 0])
if output:
self.Debug(f"Weights {self.Time:%Y-%m-%d}: {output}")
def _execute_targets(self, target_weights):
# FIX 2 + fill-fix: store decision, OnData drains via MarketOnOpenOrder
self._pending_weights = dict(target_weights)