| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Trades 261 Average Win 1.78% Average Loss -0.98% Compounding Annual Return 9.569% Drawdown 13.800% Expectancy 0.825 Net Profit 173.232% Sharpe Ratio 0.844 Loss Rate 35% Win Rate 65% Profit-Loss Ratio 1.82 Alpha 0.013 Beta 4.272 Annual Standard Deviation 0.115 Annual Variance 0.013 Information Ratio 0.672 Tracking Error 0.115 Treynor Ratio 0.023 Total Fees $812.33 |
import decimal as d
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from decimal import Decimal
class VigilantAssetAllocationAlgorithm(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
self.SetCash(25000)
self.SetStartDate(2007,1,1)
self.LastRotationTime = datetime.min
self.RotationInterval = timedelta(days=30)
self.first = True
# these are the growth symbols we'll rotate through
GrowthSymbols =["SPY",
"EFA",
"EEM",
"AGG"]
# these are the safety symbols we go to when things are looking bad for growth
SafetySymbols = ["LQD",
"IEF",
"SHY"]
# I split the indicators into two different sets to make it easier for illustrative purposes below.
# Storing all risky asset data into SymbolData object
self.SymbolData = []
for symbol in list(GrowthSymbols):
self.AddSecurity(SecurityType.Equity, symbol, Resolution.Minute)
self.oneMonthPerformance = self.MOMP(symbol, 21, Resolution.Daily)
self.threeMonthPerformance = self.MOMP(symbol, 63, Resolution.Daily)
self.sixMonthPerformance = self.MOMP(symbol, 126, Resolution.Daily)
self.twelveMonthPerformance = self.MOMP(symbol, 252, Resolution.Daily)
self.SymbolData.append([symbol, self.oneMonthPerformance, self.threeMonthPerformance, self.sixMonthPerformance, self.twelveMonthPerformance])
# Storing all risk-free data into SafetyData object
self.SafetyData = []
for symbol in list(SafetySymbols):
self.AddSecurity(SecurityType.Equity, symbol, Resolution.Minute)
self.oneMonthPerformance = self.MOMP(symbol, 21, Resolution.Daily)
self.threeMonthPerformance = self.MOMP(symbol, 63, Resolution.Daily)
self.sixMonthPerformance = self.MOMP(symbol, 126, Resolution.Daily)
self.twelveMonthPerformance = self.MOMP(symbol, 252, Resolution.Daily)
self.SafetyData.append([symbol, self.oneMonthPerformance, self.threeMonthPerformance, self.sixMonthPerformance, self.twelveMonthPerformance])
def OnData(self, data):
if self.first:
self.first = False
self.LastRotationTime = self.Time
return
delta = self.Time - self.LastRotationTime
if delta > self.RotationInterval:
self.LastRotationTime = self.Time
##Using the Score class at the bottom, compute the score for each risky asset.
##This approach overweights the front month momentum value and progressively underweights older momentum values
orderedObjScores = sorted(self.SymbolData, key=lambda x: Score(x[1].Current.Value,x[2].Current.Value,x[3].Current.Value,x[4].Current.Value).ObjectiveScore(), reverse=True)
##Using the Score class at the bottom, compute the score for each risk-free asset.
orderedSafeScores = sorted(self.SafetyData, key=lambda x: Score(x[1].Current.Value,x[2].Current.Value,x[3].Current.Value,x[4].Current.Value).ObjectiveScore(), reverse=True)
##Count the number of risky assets with negative momentum scores and store in N. If all four of the offensive assets exhibit positive momentum scores,
##select the offensive asset with the highest score and allocate 100% of the portfolio to that asset at the close
N = 0
for x in orderedObjScores:
self.Log(">>SCORE>>" + x[0] + ">>" + str(Score(x[1].Current.Value,x[2].Current.Value,x[3].Current.Value,x[4].Current.Value).ObjectiveScore()))
if Score(x[1].Current.Value,x[2].Current.Value,x[3].Current.Value,x[4].Current.Value).ObjectiveScore() < 0:
N += 1
# pick which one is best from risky and risk-free symbols and store for use below
bestGrowth = orderedObjScores[0]
bestSafe = orderedSafeScores[0]
## If any of the four risky assets exhibit negative momentum scores, select the risk-free asset (LQD, IEF or SHY) with the highest score
## (regardless of whether the score is > 0) and allocate 100% of the portfolio to that asset at the close.
if N > 0:
self.Log("PREBUY>>LIQUIDATE>>")
self.Liquidate()
self.Log(">>BUY>>" + str(bestSafe[0]) + "@" + str(Decimal(100) * bestSafe[1].Current.Value))
self.SetHoldings(bestSafe[0], 1)
## If none of the risky assets come back with negative momentum scores, allocation 100% to the best scoring risky asset and hold until month end
else:
self.Log("PREBUY>>LIQUIDATE>>")
self.Liquidate()
self.Log(">>BUY>>" + str(bestGrowth[0]) + "@" + str(Decimal(100) * bestGrowth[1].Current.Value))
self.SetHoldings(bestGrowth[0], 1)
class Score(object):
def __init__(self,oneMonthPerformanceValue,threeMonthPerformanceValue,sixMonthPerformanceValue,twelveMonthPerformanceValue):
self.oneMonthPerformance = oneMonthPerformanceValue
self.threeMonthPerformance = threeMonthPerformanceValue
self.sixMonthPerformance = sixMonthPerformanceValue
self.twelveMonthPerformance = twelveMonthPerformanceValue
def ObjectiveScore(self):
weight1 = 12
weight2 = 4
weight3 = 2
return (weight1 * self.oneMonthPerformance) + (weight2 * self.threeMonthPerformance) + (weight3 * self.sixMonthPerformance) + self.twelveMonthPerformance