Overall Statistics |
Total Trades
13373
Average Win
0.23%
Average Loss
-0.11%
Compounding Annual Return
4.305%
Drawdown
48.300%
Expectancy
0.184
Net Profit
137.577%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31
Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio
0.023%
Loss Rate
60%
Win Rate
40%
Profit-Loss Ratio
1.99
Alpha
0.045
Beta
0.041
Annual Standard Deviation
0.153
Annual Variance
0.023
Information Ratio
-0.073
Tracking Error
0.23
Treynor Ratio
1.146
Total Fees
$11078.23
|
import numpy as np from scipy.optimize import minimize sp100_stocks = ['AAPL','MSFT','AMZN','FB','BRKB','GOOGL','GOOG','JPM','JNJ','V','PG','XOM','UNH','BAC','MA','T','DIS','INTC','HD','VZ','MRK','PFE','CVX','KO','CMCSA','CSCO','PEP','WFC','C','BA','ADBE','WMT','CRM','MCD','MDT','BMY','ABT','NVDA','NFLX','AMGN','PM','PYPL','TMO','COST','ABBV','ACN','HON','NKE','UNP','UTX','NEE','IBM','TXN','AVGO','LLY','ORCL','LIN','SBUX','AMT','LMT','GE','MMM','DHR','QCOM','CVS','MO','LOW','FIS','AXP','BKNG','UPS','GILD','CHTR','CAT','MDLZ','GS','USB','CI','ANTM','BDX','TJX','ADP','TFC','CME','SPGI','COP','INTU','ISRG','CB','SO','D','FISV','PNC','DUK','SYK','ZTS','MS','RTN','AGN','BLK'] def MonthDiff(d1, d2): return (d1.year - d2.year) * 12 + d1.month - d2.month def Return(values): return (values[-1] - values[0]) / values[0] def Volatility(values): values = np.array(values) returns = (values[1:] - values[:-1]) / values[:-1] return np.std(returns) def GetFutureMulitpliers(algorithm): symbol_multiplier = {} csv_string_file = algorithm.Download('data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/futures/contract_multiplier.csv') mulitpliers_lines = csv_string_file.split('\r\n') for line in mulitpliers_lines: symbol, multiplier = line.split(';') symbol_multiplier[symbol] = multiplier return symbol_multiplier # Custom fee model class CustomFeeModel(FeeModel): def GetOrderFee(self, parameters): fee = parameters.Security.Price * parameters.Order.AbsoluteQuantity * 0.00005 return OrderFee(CashAmount(fee, "USD")) # Quandl free data class QuandlFutures(PythonQuandl): def __init__(self): self.ValueColumnName = "settle" # Quandl short interest data. class QuandlFINRA_ShortVolume(PythonQuandl): def __init__(self): self.ValueColumnName = 'SHORTVOLUME' # also 'TOTALVOLUME' is accesible # Quantpedia data. # NOTE: IMPORTANT: Data order must be ascending (datewise) class QuantpediaFutures(PythonData): def GetSource(self, config, date, isLiveMode): return SubscriptionDataSource("data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/futures/{0}.csv".format(config.Symbol.Value), SubscriptionTransportMedium.RemoteFile, FileFormat.Csv) def Reader(self, config, line, date, isLiveMode): data = QuantpediaFutures() data.Symbol = config.Symbol if not line[0].isdigit(): return None split = line.split(';') data.Time = datetime.strptime(split[0], "%d.%m.%Y") + timedelta(days=1) data['back_adjusted'] = float(split[1]) data['spliced'] = float(split[2]) data.Value = float(split[1]) return data # Commitments of Traders data. # NOTE: IMPORTANT: Data order must be ascending (datewise). # Data source: https://commitmentsoftraders.org/cot-data/ # Data description: https://commitmentsoftraders.org/wp-content/uploads/Static/CoTData/file_key.html class CommitmentsOfTraders(PythonData): def GetSource(self, config, date, isLiveMode): return SubscriptionDataSource("data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/futures/cot/{0}.PRN".format(config.Symbol.Value), SubscriptionTransportMedium.RemoteFile, FileFormat.Csv) # File example. # DATE OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE VOLUME OI # ---- ---- ---- --- ----- ------ -- # DATE LARGE SPECULATOR COMMERCIAL HEDGER SMALL TRADER # LONG SHORT LONG SHORT LONG SHORT def Reader(self, config, line, date, isLiveMode): data = CommitmentsOfTraders() data.Symbol = config.Symbol if not line[0].isdigit(): return None split = line.split(',') # Prevent lookahead bias. data.Time = datetime.strptime(split[0], "%Y%m%d") + timedelta(days=1) data['LARGE_SPECULATOR_LONG'] = int(split[1]) data['LARGE_SPECULATOR_SHORT'] = int(split[2]) data['COMMERCIAL_HEDGER_LONG'] = int(split[3]) data['COMMERCIAL_HEDGER_SHORT'] = int(split[4]) data['SMALL_TRADER_LONG'] = int(split[5]) data['SMALL_TRADER_SHORT'] = int(split[6]) data.Value = int(split[1]) return data # NOTE: Manager for new trades. It's represented by certain count of equally weighted brackets for long and short positions. # If there's a place for new trade, it will be managed for time of holding period. class TradeManager(): def __init__(self, algorithm, long_size, short_size, holding_period): self.algorithm = algorithm # algorithm to execute orders in. self.long_size = long_size self.short_size = short_size self.long_len = 0 self.short_len = 0 # Arrays of ManagedSymbols self.symbols = [] self.holding_period = holding_period # Days of holding. # Add stock symbol object def Add(self, symbol, long_flag): # Open new long trade. managed_symbol = ManagedSymbol(symbol, self.holding_period, long_flag) if long_flag: # If there's a place for it. if self.long_len < self.long_size: self.symbols.append(managed_symbol) self.algorithm.SetHoldings(symbol, 1 / self.long_size) self.long_len += 1 else: self.algorithm.Log("There's not place for additional trade.") # Open new short trade. else: # If there's a place for it. if self.short_len < self.short_size: self.symbols.append(managed_symbol) self.algorithm.SetHoldings(symbol, - 1 / self.short_size) self.short_len += 1 else: self.algorithm.Log("There's not place for additional trade.") # Decrement holding period and liquidate symbols. def TryLiquidate(self): symbols_to_delete = [] for managed_symbol in self.symbols: managed_symbol.days_to_liquidate -= 1 # Liquidate. if managed_symbol.days_to_liquidate == 0: symbols_to_delete.append(managed_symbol) self.algorithm.Liquidate(managed_symbol.symbol) if managed_symbol.long_flag: self.long_len -= 1 else: self.short_len -= 1 # Remove symbols from management. for managed_symbol in symbols_to_delete: self.symbols.remove(managed_symbol) def LiquidateTicker(self, ticker): symbol_to_delete = None for managed_symbol in self.symbols: if managed_symbol.symbol.Value == ticker: self.algorithm.Liquidate(managed_symbol.symbol) symbol_to_delete = managed_symbol if managed_symbol.long_flag: self.long_len -= 1 else: self.short_len -= 1 break if symbol_to_delete: self.symbols.remove(symbol_to_delete) else: self.algorithm.Debug("Ticker is not held in portfolio!") class ManagedSymbol(): def __init__(self, symbol, days_to_liquidate, long_flag): self.symbol = symbol self.days_to_liquidate = days_to_liquidate self.long_flag = long_flag class PortfolioOptimization(object): def __init__(self, df_return, risk_free_rate, num_assets): self.daily_return = df_return self.risk_free_rate = risk_free_rate self.n = num_assets # numbers of risk assets in portfolio self.target_vol = 0.05 def annual_port_return(self, weights): # calculate the annual return of portfolio return np.sum(self.daily_return.mean() * weights) * 252 def annual_port_vol(self, weights): # calculate the annual volatility of portfolio return np.sqrt(np.dot(weights.T, np.dot(self.daily_return.cov() * 252, weights))) def min_func(self, weights): # method 1: maximize sharp ratio return - self.annual_port_return(weights) / self.annual_port_vol(weights) # method 2: maximize the return with target volatility #return - self.annual_port_return(weights) / self.target_vol def opt_portfolio(self): # maximize the sharpe ratio to find the optimal weights cons = ({'type': 'eq', 'fun': lambda x: np.sum(x) - 1}) bnds = tuple((0, 1) for x in range(2)) + tuple((0, 0.25) for x in range(self.n - 2)) opt = minimize(self.min_func, # object function np.array(self.n * [1. / self.n]), # initial value method='SLSQP', # optimization method bounds=bnds, # bounds for variables constraints=cons) # constraint conditions opt_weights = opt['x'] return opt_weights
# https://quantpedia.com/strategies/pairs-trading-with-stocks/ # # The investment universe consists of stocks from NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ, while illiquid stocks are removed from the investment universe. Cumulative # total return index is then created for each stock (dividends included), and the starting price during the formation period is set to $1 (price normalization). # Pairs are formed over twelve months (formation period) and are then traded in the next six-month period (trading period). The matching partner for each stock # is found by looking for the security that minimizes the sum of squared deviations between two normalized price series. Top 20 pairs with the smallest historical # distance measure are then traded, and a long-short position is opened when pair prices have diverged by two standard deviations, and the position is closed # when prices revert. import numpy as np from collections import deque import itertools as it import fk_tools class PairsTradingwithStocks(QCAlgorithm): def Initialize(self): self.SetStartDate(2000, 1, 1) self.SetCash(100000) self.symbol = self.AddEquity('SPY', Resolution.Daily).Symbol # Daily price data. self.history_price = {} self.period = 12 * 21 # Equally weighted brackets. self.max_traded_pairs = 5 self.traded_pairs = [] self.coarse_count = 100 self.month = 6 self.selection_flag = False self.UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Daily self.AddUniverse(self.CoarseSelectionFunction) self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.MonthStart(self.symbol), self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(self.symbol), self.Selection) def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, changes): for security in changes.AddedSecurities: symbol = security.Symbol security.SetFeeModel(fk_tools.CustomFeeModel(self)) security.SetLeverage(5) if symbol not in self.history_price: history = self.History(symbol, self.period, Resolution.Daily) if len(history) == self.period and 'close' in history: closes = [x for x in history['close']] self.history_price[symbol] = deque(closes, maxlen = self.period) symbols = [x for x in self.history_price.keys() if x != self.symbol] self.symbol_pairs = list(it.combinations(symbols, 2)) distances = {} for pair in self.symbol_pairs: if len(self.history_price[pair[0]]) == self.period and len(self.history_price[pair[1]]) == self.period: distances[pair] = self.Distance(self.history_price[pair[0]], self.history_price[pair[1]]) if len(distances) != 0: self.sorted_pairs = sorted(distances.items(), key = lambda x: x[1])[:20] self.sorted_pairs = [x[0] for x in self.sorted_pairs] self.Liquidate() def CoarseSelectionFunction(self, coarse): if self.selection_flag: return Universe.Unchanged selected = sorted([x for x in coarse if x.HasFundamentalData and x.Price > 5 and x.Market == 'usa'], key=lambda x: x.DollarVolume, reverse=True) return [x.Symbol for x in selected[:self.coarse_count]] def OnData(self, data): # Update the price series everyday. for symbol in self.history_price: self.history_price[symbol].append(float(self.Securities[symbol].Price)) if self.sorted_pairs is None: return pairs_to_remove = [] for pair in self.sorted_pairs: # Calculate the spread of two price series. spread = np.array(self.history_price[pair[0]]) - np.array(self.history_price[pair[1]]) mean = np.mean(spread) std = np.std(spread) # ratio = self.Portfolio[pair[0]].Price / self.Portfolio[pair[1]].Price # Long-short position is opened when pair prices have diverged by two standard deviations. weight = 1 / self.max_traded_pairs if spread[-1] > mean + 2*std: if not self.Portfolio[pair[0]].Invested and not self.Portfolio[pair[1]].Invested: if len(self.traded_pairs) < self.max_traded_pairs: self.SetHoldings(pair[0], -weight) self.SetHoldings(pair[1], weight) if pair not in self.traded_pairs: self.traded_pairs.append(pair) elif self.Portfolio[pair[0]].Invested and self.Portfolio[pair[1]].Invested: self.SetHoldings(pair[0], -weight) self.SetHoldings(pair[1], weight) elif spread[-1] < mean - 2*std: if not self.Portfolio[pair[0]].Invested and not self.Portfolio[pair[1]].Invested: if len(self.traded_pairs) < self.max_traded_pairs: self.SetHoldings(pair[0], weight) self.SetHoldings(pair[1], -weight) if pair not in self.traded_pairs: self.traded_pairs.append(pair) elif self.Portfolio[pair[0]].Invested and self.Portfolio[pair[1]].Invested: self.SetHoldings(pair[0], weight) self.SetHoldings(pair[1], -weight) # The position is closed when prices revert back. else: if self.Portfolio[pair[0]].Invested and self.Portfolio[pair[1]].Invested: self.Liquidate(pair[0]) self.Liquidate(pair[1]) if pair in self.traded_pairs: pairs_to_remove.append(pair) for pair in pairs_to_remove: self.traded_pairs.remove(pair) pairs_to_remove.clear() # self.Log(len(self.traded_pairs)) def Distance(self, price_a, price_b): # Calculate the sum of squared deviations between two normalized price series. norm_a = np.array(price_a) / price_a[0] norm_b = np.array(price_b) / price_b[0] return sum((norm_a - norm_b)**2) def Selection(self): if self.month == 6: self.selection_flag = True self.month += 1 if self.month > 12: self.month = 1