| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Orders
358
Average Win
0.20%
Average Loss
-0.14%
Compounding Annual Return
1.007%
Drawdown
4.300%
Expectancy
0.387
Start Equity
100000
End Equity
110251.31
Net Profit
10.251%
Sharpe Ratio
-1.03
Sortino Ratio
-0.746
Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio
3.035%
Loss Rate
43%
Win Rate
57%
Profit-Loss Ratio
1.43
Alpha
-0.016
Beta
0.02
Annual Standard Deviation
0.014
Annual Variance
0
Information Ratio
-0.642
Tracking Error
0.145
Treynor Ratio
-0.692
Total Fees
$47.85
Estimated Strategy Capacity
$93000000.00
Lowest Capacity Asset
AIZ SVXZEUFT60DH
Portfolio Turnover
0.25%
|
# https://quantpedia.com/strategies/earnings-announcements-combined-with-stock-repurchases/
#
# The investment universe consists of stocks from NYSE/AMEX/Nasdaq (no ADRs, CEFs or REITs), bottom 25% of firms by market cap are dropped.
# Each quarter, the investor looks for companies that announce a stock repurchase program (with announced buyback for at least 5% of outstanding stocks)
# during days -30 to -15 before the earnings announcement date for each company.
# Investor goes long stocks with announced buybacks during days -10 to +15 around an earnings announcement.
# The portfolio is equally weighted and rebalanced daily.
#
# QC Implementation changes:
# - Universe consists of tickers, which have earnings annoucement.
#region imports
from AlgorithmImports import *
import numpy as np
from typing import List, Dict
from dataclasses import dataclass
from pandas.tseries.offsets import BDay
#endregion
class EarningsAnnouncementsCombinedWithStockRepurchases(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self) -> None:
self.SetStartDate(2015, 1, 1)
self.SetCash(100_000)
self.exchange_codes:List[str] = ['NYS', 'NAS', 'ASE']
self.selected: Dict[str, Symbol] = {}
self.price: Dict[str, float] = {}
self.managed_symbols: List[ManagedSymbol] = []
self.earnings_universe: List[str] = []
self.earnings: Dict[datetime.date, str] = {}
self.buybacks: Dict[datetime.date, str] = {}
self.max_traded_stocks: int = 40 # maximum number of trading stocks
self.quantile: int = 4
self.leverage: int = 5
self.open_trade_offset: int = 10
self.close_trade_offset: int = 15
self.announcement_lookback: List[int] = [30, 15]
self.earnings_last_date: Union[None, datetime.date] = None
self.buybacks_last_date: Union[None, datetime.date] = None
symbol: Symbol = self.AddEquity("SPY", Resolution.Daily).Symbol
# self.first_date:datetime.date|None = None
earnings_data: str = self.Download('data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/economic/earnings_dates_eps.json')
earnings_data_json: List[dict] = json.loads(earnings_data)
for obj in earnings_data_json:
date: datetime.date = datetime.strptime(obj['date'], "%Y-%m-%d").date()
self.earnings_last_date = date
self.earnings[date] = []
# if not self.first_date: self.first_date = date
for stock_data in obj['stocks']:
ticker: str = stock_data['ticker']
self.earnings[date].append(ticker)
if ticker not in self.earnings_universe:
self.earnings_universe.append(ticker)
# load buyback dates
csv_data: str = self.Download('data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/equity/BUY_BACKS.csv')
lines: str = csv_data.split('\r\n')
for line in lines[1:]: # skip header
line_split: str = line.split(';')
date: str = line_split[0]
if date == '':
continue
date: datetime.date = datetime.strptime(date, "%d.%m.%Y").date()
self.buybacks_last_date = date
self.buybacks[date] = []
for ticker in line_split[1:]: # skip date in current line
self.buybacks[date].append(ticker)
self.months_counter: int = 0
self.selection_flag: bool = False
self.settings.daily_precise_end_time = False
self.Settings.MinimumOrderMarginPortfolioPercentage = 0.
self.UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Daily
self.AddUniverse(self.FundamentalSelectionFunction)
self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.MonthStart(symbol), self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(symbol), self.Selection)
def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, changes: SecurityChanges) -> None:
for security in changes.AddedSecurities:
security.SetFeeModel(CustomFeeModel())
security.SetLeverage(self.leverage)
def FundamentalSelectionFunction(self, fundamental: List[Fundamental]) -> List[Symbol]:
# update stocks last prices
for stock in fundamental:
ticker: str = stock.Symbol.Value
if ticker in self.earnings_universe:
# store stock's last price
self.price[ticker] = stock.AdjustedPrice
# rebalance quarterly
if not self.selection_flag:
return Universe.Unchanged
self.selection_flag = False
# select stocks, which had spin off
selected: List[Fundamental] = [
x for x in fundamental if x.MarketCap != 0 \
and x.SecurityReference.ExchangeId in self.exchange_codes \
and x.Symbol.Value in self.earnings_universe
]
if len(selected) < self.quantile:
return Universe.Unchanged
# exclude 25% stocks with lowest market capitalization
quantile: int = int(len(selected) / self.quantile)
self.selected = {x.Symbol.Value : x.Symbol for x in sorted(selected, key=lambda x: x.MarketCap)[quantile:]}
return list(self.selected.values())
def OnData(self, data: Slice) -> None:
remove_managed_symbols: List[ManagedSymbol] = []
# check last date on custom data
if any([self.Time.date() > date for date in [self.earnings_last_date, self.buybacks_last_date]]):
self.Liquidate()
return
# check if bought stocks have 15 days after earnings annoucemnet
for managed_symbol in self.managed_symbols:
if (managed_symbol.earnings_date + BDay(self.close_trade_offset)).date() <= self.Time.date():
remove_managed_symbols.append(managed_symbol)
# liquidate stock by selling it's quantity
self.MarketOrder(managed_symbol.symbol, -managed_symbol.quantity)
# remove liquidated stocks from self.managed_symbols
for managed_symbol in remove_managed_symbols:
self.managed_symbols.remove(managed_symbol)
# maybe there should be BDay(10)
after_current: datetime.date = (self.Time + BDay(self.open_trade_offset)).date()
if after_current in self.earnings:
# this stocks has earnings annoucement after 10 days
stocks_with_earnings: str = self.earnings[after_current]
# 30 days before earnings annoucement
buyback_start: datetime.date = (self.Time - BDay(self.announcement_lookback[0] - self.open_trade_offset)).date()
# 15 days before earnings annoucement
buyback_end: datetime.date = (self.Time - BDay(self.announcement_lookback[1] - self.open_trade_offset)).date()
stocks_with_buyback: List[Symbol] = [] # storing stocks with buyback in period -30 to -15 days before earnings annoucement
for buyback_date, tickers in self.buybacks.items():
# check if buyback date is in period before earnings annoucement
if buyback_date >= buyback_start and buyback_date <= buyback_end:
# iterate through each stock ticker for buyback date
for ticker in tickers:
# add stock ticker if it isn't already added, it has earnings annoucement after 10 days and was selected in selected
if (ticker not in stocks_with_buyback) and (ticker in stocks_with_earnings) and (ticker in self.selected):
stocks_with_buyback.append(self.selected[ticker])
# buying stocks buyback in period -30 to -15 days before earnings annoucement
# and stocks, which have earnings date -10 days before current date
for symbol in stocks_with_buyback:
# check if there is a place in Portfolio for trading current stock
if not len(self.managed_symbols) < self.max_traded_stocks:
continue
# calculate stock quantity
weight: float = self.Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue / self.max_traded_stocks
quantity: int = np.floor(weight / self.price[symbol.Value])
if symbol in data and data[symbol]:
# go long stock
self.MarketOrder(symbol, quantity)
# store stock's ticker, earnings date and traded quantity
self.managed_symbols.append(ManagedSymbol(symbol, after_current, quantity))
def Selection(self) -> None:
# quarterly selection
if self.months_counter % 3 == 0:
self.selection_flag = True
self.months_counter += 1
@dataclass
class ManagedSymbol():
symbol: Symbol
earnings_date: datetime.date
quantity: int
# Custom fee model.
class CustomFeeModel(FeeModel):
def GetOrderFee(self, parameters: OrderFeeParameters) -> OrderFee:
fee: float = parameters.Security.Price * parameters.Order.AbsoluteQuantity * 0.00005
return OrderFee(CashAmount(fee, "USD"))