Overall Statistics |
Total Trades
110
Average Win
3.04%
Average Loss
-3.47%
Compounding Annual Return
2.049%
Drawdown
33.200%
Expectancy
0.151
Net Profit
31.741%
Sharpe Ratio
0.199
Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio
0.057%
Loss Rate
39%
Win Rate
61%
Profit-Loss Ratio
0.87
Alpha
0.03
Beta
-0.055
Annual Standard Deviation
0.124
Annual Variance
0.015
Information Ratio
-0.349
Tracking Error
0.23
Treynor Ratio
-0.448
Total Fees
$778.13
Estimated Strategy Capacity
$16000000.00
Lowest Capacity Asset
XLK RGRPZX100F39
|
# https://quantpedia.com/strategies/riding-industry-bubbles/ # # The investment universe consists of equity industry funds (or ETFs) which are proxy for equity industry indexes. Investor uses 10 years of # past data to calculate industry’s alpha based on CAPM model (from the regression model industry_return = alpha + beta*market return, it is # possible to use alternative models like the Fama/French 3 factor model). A bubble in an industry is detected if the industry’s alpha is # statistically significant (source academic paper uses 97,5% significance threshold, but it is possible to use other values). Investor is # long in each industry experiencing a bubble by applying 1/N rule (investment is divided equally between industries in bubble). If no bubble # is detected then he/she makes no investment. Data examination, alpha calculation and portfolio rebalancing is done on monthly basis. # # QC Implementation: import numpy as np import statsmodels.api as sm class RidingIndustryBubbles(QCAlgorithm): def Initialize(self): self.SetStartDate(2008, 1, 1) self.SetCash(100000) self.spy = 'SPY' self.symbols = ['XLF', 'XLV', 'XLP', 'XLY', 'XLI', 'XLE', 'XLB', 'XLK', 'XLU'] self.period = 10 * 12 * 21 self.SetWarmUp(self.period) # Daily price data. self.data = {} for symbol in self.symbols + [self.spy]: data = self.AddEquity(symbol, Resolution.Daily) self.data[symbol] = RollingWindow[float](self.period) self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.MonthStart(self.symbols[0]), self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(self.symbols[0]), self.Rebalance) def OnData(self, data): # Store daily price data. for symbol in self.symbols + [self.spy]: symbol_obj = self.Symbol(symbol) if symbol_obj in data and data[symbol_obj]: self.data[symbol].Add(data[symbol_obj].Value) def Rebalance(self): if not self.data[self.spy].IsReady: return market_closes = [x for x in self.data[self.spy]] separete_months = [market_closes[x:x+21] for x in range(0, len(market_closes),21)] market_monthly_returns = [] for month in separete_months: month_of_prices = [x for x in month] market_monthly_returns.append(month_of_prices[0] / month_of_prices[-1] - 1) # Prepared for regression. market_monthly_returns = np.array(market_monthly_returns).T market_monthly_returns = sm.add_constant(market_monthly_returns) t_stat = {} for symbol in self.symbols: if self.data[symbol].IsReady: closes = [x for x in self.data[symbol]] separete_months = [closes[x:x+21] for x in range(0, len(closes),21)] etf_monthly_returns = [] for month in separete_months: month_of_prices = [x for x in month] etf_monthly_returns.append(month_of_prices[0] / month_of_prices[-1] - 1) # alpha t-stat calc. model = sm.OLS(etf_monthly_returns, market_monthly_returns) results = model.fit() alpha_tstat = results.tvalues[0] alpha_pvalue = results.pvalues[0] t_stat[symbol] = (alpha_tstat, alpha_pvalue) long = [] if len(t_stat) != 0: long = [x[0] for x in t_stat.items() if x[1][0] >= 2 and x[1][1] >= 0.025] # The result is statistically significant, by the standards of the study, when p ≤ α # Trade execution. invested = [x.Key.Value for x in self.Portfolio if x.Value.Invested] for symbol in invested: if symbol not in long: self.Liquidate(symbol) for symbol in long: self.SetHoldings(symbol, 1 / len(long))