| Overall Statistics |
|
Total Trades
11506
Average Win
0.49%
Average Loss
-0.50%
Compounding Annual Return
-2.950%
Drawdown
67.100%
Expectancy
-0.012
Net Profit
-47.613%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.094
Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio
0.000%
Loss Rate
50%
Win Rate
50%
Profit-Loss Ratio
0.99
Alpha
-0.014
Beta
0.007
Annual Standard Deviation
0.145
Annual Variance
0.021
Information Ratio
-0.39
Tracking Error
0.227
Treynor Ratio
-2.021
Total Fees
$9038.76
Estimated Strategy Capacity
$0
Lowest Capacity Asset
CME_C1.QuantpediaFutures 2S
|
# https://quantpedia.com/strategies/short-term-reversal-with-futures/
#
# The investment universe consists of 24 types of US futures contracts (4 currencies, 5 financials, 8 agricultural, 7 commodities).
# A weekly time frame is used – a Wednesday- Wednesday interval. The contract closest to expiration is used, except within the delivery
# month, in which the second-nearest contract is used. Rolling into the second nearest contract is done at the beginning of the delivery month.
# The contract is defined as the high- (low-) volume contract if the contract’s volume changes between period from t-1 to t and period from t-2
# to t-1 is above (below) the median volume change of all contracts (weekly trading volume is detrended by dividing the trading volume by its
# sample mean to make the volume measure comparable across markets). All contracts are also assigned to either high-open interest (top 50% of
# changes in open interest) or low-open interest groups (bottom 50% of changes in open interest) based on lagged changes in open interest between
# the period from t-1 to t and period from t-2 to t-1. The investor goes long (short) on futures from the high-volume, low-open interest group
# with the lowest (greatest) returns in the previous week. The weight of each contract is proportional to the difference between the return
# of the contract over the past one week and the equal-weighted average of returns on the N (number of contracts in a group) contracts during that period.
from collections import deque
import numpy as np
class ShortTermReversal(QCAlgorithm):
def Initialize(self):
self.SetStartDate(2000, 1, 1)
self.SetCash(100000)
self.symbols = [
"CME_S1", # Soybean Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_W1", # Wheat Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_BO1", # Soybean Oil Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_C1", # Corn Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_LC1", # Live Cattle Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_FC1", # Feeder Cattle Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_GC1", # Gold Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_SI1", # Silver Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_PL1", # Platinum Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_CL1", # Crude Oil Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_RS1", # Canola Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_GO1", # Gas Oil Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_RB2", # Gasoline Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_KW2", # Wheat Kansas, Continuous Contract
"ICE_WT1", # WTI Crude Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_CC1", # Cocoa Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_CT1", # Cotton No. 2 Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_KC1", # Coffee C Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_O1", # Heating Oil Futures, Continuous Contract
"ICE_SB1", # Sugar No. 11 Futures, Continuous Contract
"CME_BP1", # British Pound Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_EC1", # Euro FX Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_JY1", # Japanese Yen Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_SF1", # Swiss Franc Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_ES1", # E-mini S&P 500 Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_TY1", # 10 Yr Note Futures, Continuous Contract #1
"CME_FV1", # 5 Yr Note Futures, Continuous Contract #1
]
self.period = 14
self.SetWarmUp(self.period)
# Daily close, volume and open interest data.
self.data = {}
self.rebalance_flag = False
# Price data.
for symbol in self.symbols:
data = self.AddData(QuantpediaFutures, symbol, Resolution.Daily)
data.SetFeeModel(CustomFeeModel(self))
self.data[symbol] = deque(maxlen=self.period)
# Open interest and volume data
symbol = 'CHRIS/' + symbol
if 'CME' in symbol:
self.AddData(QuandlFuturesOpenInterestCME, symbol, Resolution.Daily)
else:
self.AddData(QuandlFuturesOpenInterest, symbol, Resolution.Daily)
self.AddData(QuandlFuturesVolume, symbol, Resolution.Daily)
# NOTE: Need to do this because of multiple symbol data integration. (settle, volume, open interest)
sym = self.symbols[0] + '.QuantpediaFutures'
self.Schedule.On(self.DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Wednesday), self.TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(sym), self.Rebalance)
def OnData(self, data):
for symbol in self.symbols:
volume_symbol = 'CHRIS/' + symbol + '.QuandlFuturesVolume'
# Open interest update
open_interest_type = ''
if 'CME' in symbol:
open_interest_type = 'QuandlFuturesOpenInterestCME'
else:
open_interest_type = 'QuandlFuturesOpenInterest'
open_interest_symbol = 'CHRIS/' + symbol + '.' + open_interest_type
# if self.Securities.ContainsKey(symbol) and self.Securities.ContainsKey(volume_symbol) and self.Securities.ContainsKey(open_interest_symbol):
if symbol in data and volume_symbol in data and open_interest_symbol in data:
if data[symbol] and data[volume_symbol] and data[open_interest_symbol]:
price = data[symbol].Value
vol = data[volume_symbol].Value
oi = data[open_interest_symbol].Value
if price != 0 and vol != 0 and oi != 0:
self.data[symbol].append((price, vol, oi))
def Rebalance(self):
if self.IsWarmingUp: return
ret_volume_oi_data = {}
for symbol in self.symbols:
# Data is ready.
if len(self.data[symbol]) == self.data[symbol].maxlen:
# Return calc.
prices = [x[0] for x in self.data[symbol]]
half = int(len(prices)/2)
prices = prices[-half:]
ret = prices[-1] / prices[0] - 1
# Volume change calc.
volumes = [x[1] for x in self.data[symbol]]
volumes_t1 = volumes[-half:]
t1_vol_mean = np.mean(volumes_t1)
t1_vol_total = sum(volumes_t1) / t1_vol_mean
volumes_t2 = volumes[:half]
t2_vol_mean = np.mean(volumes_t2)
t2_vol_total = sum(volumes_t2) / t2_vol_mean
volume_weekly_diff = t1_vol_total - t2_vol_total
# Open interest change calc.
interests = [x[2] for x in self.data[symbol]]
t1_oi = interests[-half:]
t1_oi_total = sum(t1_oi)
t2_oi = interests[:half]
t2_oi_total = sum(t2_oi)
oi_weekly_diff = t1_oi_total - t2_oi_total
# Store weekly diff data.
ret_volume_oi_data[symbol] = (ret, volume_weekly_diff, oi_weekly_diff)
long = []
short = []
if len(ret_volume_oi_data) != 0:
volume_sorted = sorted(ret_volume_oi_data.items(), key = lambda x: x[1][1], reverse = True)
half = int(len(volume_sorted)/2)
high_volume = [x for x in volume_sorted[:half]]
open_interest_sorted = sorted(ret_volume_oi_data.items(), key = lambda x: x[1][2], reverse = True)
half = int(len(open_interest_sorted)/2)
low_oi = [x for x in open_interest_sorted[-half:]]
filtered = [x for x in high_volume if x in low_oi]
filtered_by_return = sorted(filtered, key = lambda x : x[0], reverse = True)
half = int(len(filtered_by_return) / 2)
long = filtered_by_return[-half:]
short = filtered_by_return[:half]
# Make sure we have at least two values for weighting.
if len(long + short) < 2: return
# Return weighting.
weight = {}
diff = {}
avg_ret = np.average([x[1][0] for x in long + short])
for symbol, ret_volume_oi in long + short:
diff[symbol] = ret_volume_oi[0] - avg_ret
total_diff = sum([abs(x[1]) for x in diff.items()])
long_symbols = [x[0] for x in long]
if total_diff == 0: return
for symbol, data in long + short:
if symbol in long_symbols:
weight[symbol] = diff[symbol] / total_diff
else:
weight[symbol] = - diff[symbol] / total_diff
# Trade execution
self.Liquidate()
for symbol, w in weight.items():
sym = symbol + '.QuantpediaFutures'
self.SetHoldings(sym, w)
class QuandlFuturesOpenInterest(PythonQuandl):
def __init__(self):
self.ValueColumnName = "Prev. Day Open Interest"
class QuandlFuturesOpenInterestCME(PythonQuandl):
def __init__(self):
self.ValueColumnName = "Previous Day Open Interest"
class QuandlFuturesVolume(PythonQuandl):
def __init__(self):
self.ValueColumnName = "Volume"
# Quantpedia data.
# NOTE: IMPORTANT: Data order must be ascending (datewise)
class QuantpediaFutures(PythonData):
def GetSource(self, config, date, isLiveMode):
return SubscriptionDataSource("data.quantpedia.com/backtesting_data/futures/{0}.csv".format(config.Symbol.Value), SubscriptionTransportMedium.RemoteFile, FileFormat.Csv)
def Reader(self, config, line, date, isLiveMode):
data = QuantpediaFutures()
data.Symbol = config.Symbol
if not line[0].isdigit(): return None
split = line.split(';')
data.Time = datetime.strptime(split[0], "%d.%m.%Y") + timedelta(days=1)
data['back_adjusted'] = float(split[1])
data['spliced'] = float(split[2])
data.Value = float(split[1])
return data
# Custom fee model.
class CustomFeeModel(FeeModel):
def GetOrderFee(self, parameters):
fee = parameters.Security.Price * parameters.Order.AbsoluteQuantity * 0.00005
return OrderFee(CashAmount(fee, "USD"))