Let me start by saying this is not tradable. If you trade it, I think you'll lose all your money. I usually create some intraday strategy by looking at low time frames alive or in the last week or two in notice some trend. Therefore, I think I'm overfitting for the last few days or weeks. I then turn it into an algae and see if it works. this tested nice for the last few years but if you long term it's a loser for sure.
Key features for trying to scalp intraday:
- if you could just capture a five point move (less than 1 ATR of NQ) everyday, at $20 a point, that's $100 a day. Seems easy as it moves that much on most minutes of the day and there are 1380 tradeable minutes a day in futures
- if doable, it could be scalable as futures have liquidity - Therefore you could be wealthy LOL
- identify a trend in the five minute bars and try to hold it until the trend changes.
- Trades one futures contract only, NQ Mini
- Tried to use multiple indicators to confirm a turn and direction including EMA slope, RSI slope, momentum slope and ultimate oscillator slope - I had MACD histogram slope too but it performed worse
- Used a long term EMA to help guide the trend. if 500 ema was positive then I needed the signals to happen twice in a row to go short but only once to go long and vice versa.
I have no real financial or coding background so this probably breaks many rules on what makes a good algorithm.
I would like to get feedback on a few things if anyone has any:
Feedback on the theory
Feedback on the code itself
Feedback on just the idea of intraday trading and scalping - After years of looking at different indicators, time frames, strategies etc I'm pretty convinced that there is no way to trade intraday at all. I speculate the reason for this is that I can't compete with Wall Street high frequency trading algorithms
Any other constructive discussions are welcome!
Big thanks in advance for constructive criticism
David E
Yeah, I suspected as much. I appreciate your insight and suggestions!
Two questions:
David E
Since you mentioned not getting 1:1 win rate. Here is one that I did that was close. I used a 1 minute time frame. If the RSI of the NQ mini dropped below 30 then its oversold, plan to buy when the SMA of the RSI is trending back up from the oversold condition along with a short term EMA of the price moving up. Same with overbought and an RSI cut off of 70 with the indicators moving down suggesting the overbought condition is reverting back to the mean. I then held the postition until it hit the opposite range. I had a win rate of 61% and nearly broke even. The loss was almost solely due to trading fees.
When I added an ATR to this to use it as a trailing stop loss it did much worse.
David E
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