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Using Levered ETFs in IRA - 10 years - 24% CAGR, 1.56 Sharpe

Here is a simplistic strategy that can add leverage to an IRA for better absolute and risk-adjusted returns.  Inspired by the Seeking Alpha article, it uses just three funds and rebalances every 2 weeks.  The article discusses UPRO, but I used TQQQ instead because I expect the recent outperformance of the underlying index to continue in the future.  Even with the recent craziness, its worst drawdown is 26%.

Due to the 3x leverage, it's not for the faint of heart.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4299701-leveraged-etfs-for-long-term-investing

 

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The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.


Yes, when SPY's closing price is less than the 200 Simple Moving Average sell all Leveraged ETFs (if long) and go to cash. The code I put went to plain cash when SPY<200SMA down in the "Else:" line.

You could go to SHY, IEF, TLT or AGG, or any combination of those to move into risk off positioning for example. The point is to have a bull/bear market timer to get you to a risk off position to preserve capital. Once the market changes, you can back to a full risk on position. This is where the 3x leverage will give you good alpha over time.

As for the market timer logic it doesn't have to be SPY<200SMA. There are lots of ways to determine a bull/bear cycle. If the 6 month percent return is less than 0%, the number of down days over the last few months is greater than the up days, etc. Look for some white papers that include market timer logic for more examples.

I'm a trader tying to learn to code, so I hacked this together, I'm not 100% certain this code is error free ;)

The 2 week rebalance is not as critical in Taylor's version, instead it keeps the allocation consistent. But when there is a market timer involved the rebalancing schedule becomes critical. If you were to only rebalance every Jan. 1, then you will get out of bear markets too late and get in bull markets too late, so you may not achieve any alpha. Daily rebalancing is too often in this case. However when you switch to weekly, bi-weekly, or even monthly, then you get in that sweet spot to get out of a bear market in time and get in a bull market early enough to capture those gains.

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The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.


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