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Hello everyone i hope you are fine, Im having interesting results in my pair trading with copulas strategy, in this case im taking 2 correlated etfs, the results shows good % of returns but very low maximum drawdown, im already using trailing stop loss of 0.01 per transaction but it still not reducing maximum drawdown, any technique or advice to reduce this maximum drawdown?
I attach this backtest of my pair trading with copulas besides for seeking help i hope it is helpful for the community, the algo already has schedule, risk management metrics and showing good results and ready to deploy live trading.
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Louis Szeto
STAFF Pro
,
Hi Ro
During a paired trade, we never exit only one leg of the trade. This would lose the mutual cancellation effect on systemic risk and suffer more losses. I would not recommend applying a Risk Management Model with that, maybe you could apply one that measures the PnL of the pair with a stop-loss that liquidate both legs.
You're assuming these correlations will last from the period that you feed data into the copula model to the period you trade them, as well as constant correlation within the whole period, which are both not always the case! The breakdown of the correlation will cause your paired trade “unhedged”.
A copula is just a tool to fit and predict a higher-dimension distribution between multiple distributions. Although you could reduce the risk of the whole portfolio by weight optimization with a better-estimated distribution, its context is not really a good idea for paired trading, but more on hedging by options/uncorrelated stocks. For pair trading, cointegration or machine learning might be a better idea. We also have a basic example in here.
Best Louis
1
Edited by Louis Szeto
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Adam W
3.8k Pro
,
I am not very familiar with pairs trading with copulas (as opposed to classical cointegration methods), but for pairs trading before you can realize a large profitable movement towards the mean there by definition has to be a period of mispricing. Instead of focusing on the exit, I would actually suggest the opposite and focus on the entry logic (i.e. enter positions only when you think the “mispricing has peaked”).
Also seconding Louis' answer - entering/exiting individual positions in this context doesn't really make any sense. You should treat the pair as a single asset, and enter/exit the pair simultaneously.
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
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