Title: Exploring Intraday Bitcoin Trading Strategies – Regime Filters, PKL Development, and Community Insights

Hi everyone,

We are currently developing a trading system focused on intraday Bitcoin trading, and I’d like to open a discussion around strategies, lessons learned, and community experiences.

So far, we’ve been working on building a structured historical dataset (PKL) for BTC that allows us to map intraday behavior and test different approaches. One of the main areas we are exploring is the use of regime filters to adapt the strategy to different market conditions – for example, detecting when the market is trending, consolidating, or experiencing high volatility spikes. 
I’d love to hear from others who have tried to build intraday systems for Bitcoin (or other crypto futures) on QuantConnect:

  • Have you had success with regime-switching models (e.g., volatility filters, ADX, HMM, etc.)?
  • How do you deal with the fact that some strategies seem to only work well in specific historical windows (e.g., a strong bull run vs. post-2021 sideways periods)?
  • Has anyone implemented momentum vs. mean-reversion toggles depending on detected conditions? 

 

Our ultimate goal is to evolve towards a robust intraday framework that doesn’t just rely on one skeleton strategy (like a stop-hunt reversal) but can adapt to different regimes.If anyone has experience, suggestions, or even cautionary tales about intraday BTC strategies, it would be great to exchange ideas. Also curious if anyone has taken a similar path with PKL-based historical structures for training/testing.

Looking forward to your insights!

— Eduardo