As the title says, I'm paper trading my strategy as a way to see if the performance in the backtest was over-fitted and not accurate to real life. However, I ran into a problem: How do I quantify the performance? My strategy could have a 5% drawdown and it could potentially be the day after I start forward testing it. How can I tell if this is normal drawdown or if it's abnormal so I can pull the plug?

I've seen graphics before where someone will show a strategy's equity line and then forecast it out into the future with some confidence intervals. So if the live trading results go outside these bounds indicating that the performance is not expected. How can I do this with Quantopian?