Hi Guys, 

I have been stuck for a few days and want to check if anyone has faced something similar.

I created a strategy based on a book that trades every Tuesday and follows the following rules:

  1. only buy if  SPY price > 5 week SPY moving average 
  2. 20 slots available 
  3. stocks are picked only if their rate of change in the last 10 weeks is greater than 25%. If more stocks than slots are available the ones with higher ROC are picked
  4. trailing stop loss is used of 40% if condition one is met. stop loss is changed to 10% if SPY < 5 week moving average

 

I am seeing really bad results with QC500 compared to sp500 historical constituents (hardcoded). See results below. Pretty much every variation in parameters for SP500 yields better results than using QC500. 


Can it be that SPY/SPX has loose correlation with QC500 ? I was reading the match is 65% However, I cant believe that would be only reason. ?

Is there a way to troubleshoot this. I downloaded set of orders for each of them, but I am having trouble comparing them 

Maybe I am overfitting this and this strategy is not profitable/